**Trader consensus at 97% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the absence of any operational military planning or authorization after early 2026 rhetoric.** President Trump initially refused to rule out force and linked acquisition to national security and countering Russian or Chinese influence, prompting Danish and European troop deployments, runway sabotage preparations, and tariff threats that strained NATO relations. However, on January 21, 2026, Trump pledged at Davos not to use military force or tariffs, and Pentagon officials confirmed no invasion plans had been requested. Subsequent efforts focused on diplomatic and purchase options rather than coercion. Key barriers include Greenland’s status as Danish territory within NATO, which would trigger alliance rupture and global isolation; logistical challenges of Arctic operations; and domestic political resistance. Remaining low-probability paths to reversal would require abrupt policy reversal, unforeseen crises, or major leadership changes within the resolution window.