The Islamic Republic has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent ceasefire in April. Power has consolidated around hardline IRGC figures and security networks, with no major military defections or elite fractures sufficient to trigger collapse despite earlier protests and economic strain. Recent unrest in late August and early September 2026, including demonstrations across multiple provinces met with lethal force and arrests, has not escalated into regime-threatening momentum. Traders price the low probability of fall before 2027 on this pattern of survival through decapitation, external pressure, and domestic challenges, alongside the absence of imminent triggers like sustained mass defections or decisive external intervention within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$25,626,533 Vol.
$25,626,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$25,626,533 Vol.
$25,626,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent ceasefire in April. Power has consolidated around hardline IRGC figures and security networks, with no major military defections or elite fractures sufficient to trigger collapse despite earlier protests and economic strain. Recent unrest in late August and early September 2026, including demonstrations across multiple provinces met with lethal force and arrests, has not escalated into regime-threatening momentum. Traders price the low probability of fall before 2027 on this pattern of survival through decapitation, external pressure, and domestic challenges, alongside the absence of imminent triggers like sustained mass defections or decisive external intervention within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,626,533End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent ceasefire in April. Power has consolidated around hardline IRGC figures and security networks, with no major military defections or elite fractures sufficient to trigger collapse despite earlier protests and economic strain. Recent unrest in late August and early September 2026, including demonstrations across multiple provinces met with lethal force and arrests, has not escalated into regime-threatening momentum. Traders price the low probability of fall before 2027 on this pattern of survival through decapitation, external pressure, and domestic challenges, alongside the absence of imminent triggers like sustained mass defections or decisive external intervention within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,626,533End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated notable resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent ceasefire in April. Power has consolidated around hardline IRGC figures and security networks, with no major military defections or elite fractures sufficient to trigger collapse despite earlier protests and economic strain. Recent unrest in late August and early September 2026, including demonstrations across multiple provinces met with lethal force and arrests, has not escalated into regime-threatening momentum. Traders price the low probability of fall before 2027 on this pattern of survival through decapitation, external pressure, and domestic challenges, alongside the absence of imminent triggers like sustained mass defections or decisive external intervention within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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