Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
World·Middle East

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

icon for Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
World·Middle East

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

$767,412 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$767,412 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$199 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's presidential term under Masoud Pezeshkian extends through 2028 following his 2024 victory, with no constitutional trigger for an early vote absent death, resignation, or incapacity. The Supreme Leader's February 2026 assassination and subsequent succession by Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts shifted focus to regime stability and transition management rather than a presidential contest. Trader consensus in related markets assigns low probability to a presidential election before 2027, reflecting the absence of announced snap polls, ongoing power consolidation under interim structures, and historical patterns where regular four-year cycles prevail without executive vacancies. Key variables include any future health or political developments affecting the president and potential procedural moves by the Guardian Council or parliament.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$767,412
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's presidential term under Masoud Pezeshkian extends through 2028 following his 2024 victory, with no constitutional trigger for an early vote absent death, resignation, or incapacity. The Supreme Leader's February 2026 assassination and subsequent succession by Mojtaba Khamenei via the Assembly of Experts shifted focus to regime stability and transition management rather than a presidential contest. Trader consensus in related markets assigns low probability to a presidential election before 2027, reflecting the absence of announced snap polls, ongoing power consolidation under interim structures, and historical patterns where regular four-year cycles prevail without executive vacancies. Key variables include any future health or political developments affecting the president and potential procedural moves by the Guardian Council or parliament.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$767,412
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?

8%
icon for Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

65%
icon for Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?

6%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 15%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 15¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?" has generated $767.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?" is "December 31" at 15%, meaning the market assigns a 15% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.