**France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces a fragmented National Assembly and an April-May 2027 presidential election, making passage of the 2027 budget by year-end improbable.** The Projet de Loi de Finances for 2027 is scheduled for deposit around September 30, with parliamentary review compressed into October and November amid opposition threats of no-confidence motions from both the hard left and National Rally. Persistent fiscal pressures—including a projected public deficit near 5% of GDP, elevated debt-servicing costs, and EU fiscal rules—require contentious spending restraint and revenue measures that parties are positioning against ahead of the vote. Historical precedent from the 2026 budget, which required Article 49.3 invocation and spilled into February, reinforces trader expectations of deadlock or reliance on a special rollover law. Market-implied odds of 68.5% for no passage by December 31 reflect these structural barriers and limited appetite for compromise in an election year.