**UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has been the dominant recent development shaping sentiment.** That departure, driven by long-running quota disputes, production-capacity constraints, and strains with Saudi Arabia amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions, removed a major producer without immediately triggering follow-on exits. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over quotas (June) and Venezuela considering departure (late August) have surfaced but produced no confirmed actions by early September. Remaining members appear focused on quota negotiations and market stabilization rather than further fragmentation, with no new official announcements or votes indicating imminent exits. Traders therefore assign higher probability to no additional departures before year-end, viewing the UAE move as a singular adjustment rather than the start of rapid attrition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has been the dominant recent development shaping sentiment.** That departure, driven by long-running quota disputes, production-capacity constraints, and strains with Saudi Arabia amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions, removed a major producer without immediately triggering follow-on exits. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over quotas (June) and Venezuela considering departure (late August) have surfaced but produced no confirmed actions by early September. Remaining members appear focused on quota negotiations and market stabilization rather than further fragmentation, with no new official announcements or votes indicating imminent exits. Traders therefore assign higher probability to no additional departures before year-end, viewing the UAE move as a singular adjustment rather than the start of rapid attrition.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$175,089End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has been the dominant recent development shaping sentiment.** That departure, driven by long-running quota disputes, production-capacity constraints, and strains with Saudi Arabia amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions, removed a major producer without immediately triggering follow-on exits. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over quotas (June) and Venezuela considering departure (late August) have surfaced but produced no confirmed actions by early September. Remaining members appear focused on quota negotiations and market stabilization rather than further fragmentation, with no new official announcements or votes indicating imminent exits. Traders therefore assign higher probability to no additional departures before year-end, viewing the UAE move as a singular adjustment rather than the start of rapid attrition.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$175,089End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has been the dominant recent development shaping sentiment.** That departure, driven by long-running quota disputes, production-capacity constraints, and strains with Saudi Arabia amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions, removed a major producer without immediately triggering follow-on exits. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over quotas (June) and Venezuela considering departure (late August) have surfaced but produced no confirmed actions by early September. Remaining members appear focused on quota negotiations and market stabilization rather than further fragmentation, with no new official announcements or votes indicating imminent exits. Traders therefore assign higher probability to no additional departures before year-end, viewing the UAE move as a singular adjustment rather than the start of rapid attrition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions