US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which had set a 60-day window for finalizing a broader peace accord on issues including the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and de-escalation in Lebanon. The agreement unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations, with Iran suspending commitments after US strikes and threats, while Washington cited Iranian actions in the waterway and regional proxies. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan have continued low-level contacts into late August, and Iranian officials have signaled openness to renewed talks provided the US honors prior terms, though no new high-level round has been confirmed. Key variables include any resumption of technical working groups, statements from US President Trump or Iranian President Pezeshkian, and developments tied to Lebanon or Hormuz that could shift incentives before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$389,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
32%
Jared Kushner
28%
Abbas Araghchi
28%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
27%
J.D. Vance
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Ishaq Dar
18%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Marco Rubio
13%
Mohammed bin Salman
13%
Rafael Grossi
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
8%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Donald Trump
6%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Mojtaba Khamenei
3%
Ahmad Vahidi
3%
$389,911 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$26,229 Vol.
32%
Jared Kushner
$21,149 Vol.
28%
Abbas Araghchi
$9,176 Vol.
28%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$16,848 Vol.
27%
J.D. Vance
$26,959 Vol.
25%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,535 Vol.
24%
Ishaq Dar
$23,245 Vol.
18%
Nick Stewart
$12,950 Vol.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,967 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,796 Vol.
17%
Marco Rubio
$13,492 Vol.
13%
Mohammed bin Salman
$5,451 Vol.
13%
Rafael Grossi
$32,194 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$39,953 Vol.
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$23,045 Vol.
8%
Esmail Qaani
$11,470 Vol.
7%
Donald Trump
$9,067 Vol.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$19,414 Vol.
6%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$21,460 Vol.
3%
Ahmad Vahidi
$13,512 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which had set a 60-day window for finalizing a broader peace accord on issues including the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and de-escalation in Lebanon. The agreement unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations, with Iran suspending commitments after US strikes and threats, while Washington cited Iranian actions in the waterway and regional proxies. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan have continued low-level contacts into late August, and Iranian officials have signaled openness to renewed talks provided the US honors prior terms, though no new high-level round has been confirmed. Key variables include any resumption of technical working groups, statements from US President Trump or Iranian President Pezeshkian, and developments tied to Lebanon or Hormuz that could shift incentives before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$389,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which had set a 60-day window for finalizing a broader peace accord on issues including the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and de-escalation in Lebanon. The agreement unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations, with Iran suspending commitments after US strikes and threats, while Washington cited Iranian actions in the waterway and regional proxies. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan have continued low-level contacts into late August, and Iranian officials have signaled openness to renewed talks provided the US honors prior terms, though no new high-level round has been confirmed. Key variables include any resumption of technical working groups, statements from US President Trump or Iranian President Pezeshkian, and developments tied to Lebanon or Hormuz that could shift incentives before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$389,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled following the expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which had set a 60-day window for finalizing a broader peace accord on issues including the Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear program, and de-escalation in Lebanon. The agreement unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations, with Iran suspending commitments after US strikes and threats, while Washington cited Iranian actions in the waterway and regional proxies. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan have continued low-level contacts into late August, and Iranian officials have signaled openness to renewed talks provided the US honors prior terms, though no new high-level round has been confirmed. Key variables include any resumption of technical working groups, statements from US President Trump or Iranian President Pezeshkian, and developments tied to Lebanon or Hormuz that could shift incentives before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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