The revocation of General License X in early July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reversed the June Treasury waiver that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments and ancillary services. This action tightened export channels for Iran, which had previously relied on discounted sales primarily to Chinese buyers, and removed an estimated $8–10 billion in potential two-month revenue while supporting broader supply dynamics in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader sentiment now centers on whether renewed OFAC relief will emerge amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks, enforcement risks under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, and any performance-based conditions tied to nuclear inspections or Hormuz transit. Key near-term catalysts include Treasury announcements and geopolitical developments that could shift oil market risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$342,416 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
6%
$342,416 Vol.
September 30
$12,146 Vol.
6%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The revocation of General License X in early July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reversed the June Treasury waiver that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments and ancillary services. This action tightened export channels for Iran, which had previously relied on discounted sales primarily to Chinese buyers, and removed an estimated $8–10 billion in potential two-month revenue while supporting broader supply dynamics in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader sentiment now centers on whether renewed OFAC relief will emerge amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks, enforcement risks under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, and any performance-based conditions tied to nuclear inspections or Hormuz transit. Key near-term catalysts include Treasury announcements and geopolitical developments that could shift oil market risk premiums.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$342,416End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The revocation of General License X in early July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reversed the June Treasury waiver that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments and ancillary services. This action tightened export channels for Iran, which had previously relied on discounted sales primarily to Chinese buyers, and removed an estimated $8–10 billion in potential two-month revenue while supporting broader supply dynamics in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader sentiment now centers on whether renewed OFAC relief will emerge amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks, enforcement risks under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, and any performance-based conditions tied to nuclear inspections or Hormuz transit. Key near-term catalysts include Treasury announcements and geopolitical developments that could shift oil market risk premiums.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$342,416End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The revocation of General License X in early July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reversed the June Treasury waiver that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments and ancillary services. This action tightened export channels for Iran, which had previously relied on discounted sales primarily to Chinese buyers, and removed an estimated $8–10 billion in potential two-month revenue while supporting broader supply dynamics in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Trader sentiment now centers on whether renewed OFAC relief will emerge amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks, enforcement risks under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, and any performance-based conditions tied to nuclear inspections or Hormuz transit. Key near-term catalysts include Treasury announcements and geopolitical developments that could shift oil market risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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