Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
Geopolitics·Israel

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

icon for U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
Geopolitics·Israel

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$119,085 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$119,085 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31

$24,983 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Ongoing regional tensions tied to Iran, Hezbollah operations, and Israel-Lebanon dynamics continue to shape U.S. diplomatic staffing decisions in Beirut. In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and families amid rising risks ahead of U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran, reducing the embassy to essential staff while keeping it operational. By late August 2026, plans advanced to return diplomats to several Middle East posts, including Lebanon, following assessments of improved conditions after the Iran conflict phase. As of early September 2026, security alerts highlight potential for unforeseen escalation, flight disruptions, and targeting of U.S. interests, yet routine services remain available. Trader focus centers on any new ordered departures versus incremental returns, influenced by Hezbollah disarmament talks, Israeli buffer zones, and broader de-escalation or flare-up signals within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$119,085
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Ongoing regional tensions tied to Iran, Hezbollah operations, and Israel-Lebanon dynamics continue to shape U.S. diplomatic staffing decisions in Beirut. In February 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and families amid rising risks ahead of U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran, reducing the embassy to essential staff while keeping it operational. By late August 2026, plans advanced to return diplomats to several Middle East posts, including Lebanon, following assessments of improved conditions after the Iran conflict phase. As of early September 2026, security alerts highlight potential for unforeseen escalation, flight disruptions, and targeting of U.S. interests, yet routine services remain available. Trader focus centers on any new ordered departures versus incremental returns, influenced by Hezbollah disarmament talks, Israeli buffer zones, and broader de-escalation or flare-up signals within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$119,085
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?

6%
icon for Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

90%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 8%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?" has generated $119.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?" is "December 31" at just 8%, with "June 30" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.