Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher leads Democratic nominee Chaz Molder in the November 3 general election for Tennessee’s 5th congressional district, with traders assigning an 88% probability to the Republican Party. The redrawn map, enacted in May 2026, stretches from Williamson County through rural Middle Tennessee counties into parts of Memphis, producing a Republican-leaning partisan voting index that has historically supported GOP candidates by double digits. Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner, defeated incumbent Andy Ogles in the August 6 Republican primary and enters the general election without the prior officeholder’s controversies. Molder, Columbia’s mayor, won his primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Democratic infrastructure remains limited outside urban pockets. A late-August poll showed Hatcher ahead by eight points, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$53,140 Vol.
$53,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
$53,140 Vol.
$53,140 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$26,783 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$26,358 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher leads Democratic nominee Chaz Molder in the November 3 general election for Tennessee’s 5th congressional district, with traders assigning an 88% probability to the Republican Party. The redrawn map, enacted in May 2026, stretches from Williamson County through rural Middle Tennessee counties into parts of Memphis, producing a Republican-leaning partisan voting index that has historically supported GOP candidates by double digits. Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner, defeated incumbent Andy Ogles in the August 6 Republican primary and enters the general election without the prior officeholder’s controversies. Molder, Columbia’s mayor, won his primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Democratic infrastructure remains limited outside urban pockets. A late-August poll showed Hatcher ahead by eight points, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$53,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher leads Democratic nominee Chaz Molder in the November 3 general election for Tennessee’s 5th congressional district, with traders assigning an 88% probability to the Republican Party. The redrawn map, enacted in May 2026, stretches from Williamson County through rural Middle Tennessee counties into parts of Memphis, producing a Republican-leaning partisan voting index that has historically supported GOP candidates by double digits. Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner, defeated incumbent Andy Ogles in the August 6 Republican primary and enters the general election without the prior officeholder’s controversies. Molder, Columbia’s mayor, won his primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Democratic infrastructure remains limited outside urban pockets. A late-August poll showed Hatcher ahead by eight points, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$53,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher leads Democratic nominee Chaz Molder in the November 3 general election for Tennessee’s 5th congressional district, with traders assigning an 88% probability to the Republican Party. The redrawn map, enacted in May 2026, stretches from Williamson County through rural Middle Tennessee counties into parts of Memphis, producing a Republican-leaning partisan voting index that has historically supported GOP candidates by double digits. Hatcher, a former state agriculture commissioner, defeated incumbent Andy Ogles in the August 6 Republican primary and enters the general election without the prior officeholder’s controversies. Molder, Columbia’s mayor, won his primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Democratic infrastructure remains limited outside urban pockets. A late-August poll showed Hatcher ahead by eight points, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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