Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., combined with persistent heat and precipitation deficits along the North Dakota–South Dakota–Minnesota border and parts of the Northeast, has driven expansion of extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of the September 1 map (valid through September 1, 2026), D4 covered roughly 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in areas with multi-week rainfall shortfalls and elevated evaporative demand. The National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, and USDA integrate station data, soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation indices to classify these conditions. The next USDM release, based on data through September 8, will reflect any late-summer rainfall or continued drying; short-term forecasts from the National Weather Service will be key inputs for potential category shifts in affected states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedExceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 8, 2026

Alabama
4%

Arizona
4%

Arkansas
95%

California
5%

Colorado
50%

Delaware
54%

Florida
6%

Georgia
9%

Idaho
96%

Illinois
4%

Indiana
6%

Iowa
8%

Kansas
6%

Kentucky
4%

Louisiana
5%

Maryland
54%

Minnesota
53%

Mississippi
46%

Missouri
54%

Montana
54%

Nebraska
46%

Nevada
77%

New Jersey
26%

New Mexico
46%

North Carolina
76%

North Dakota
54%

Ohio
5%

Oklahoma
45%

Oregon
62%

Pennsylvania
7%

South Carolina
53%

South Dakota
54%

Tennessee
26%

Texas
45%

Utah
64%

Virginia
9%

Washington
9%

West Virginia
2%

Wisconsin
39%

Wyoming
41%
$2,416 Vol.

Alabama
4%

Arizona
4%

Arkansas
95%

California
5%

Colorado
50%

Delaware
54%

Florida
6%

Georgia
9%

Idaho
96%

Illinois
4%

Indiana
6%

Iowa
8%

Kansas
6%

Kentucky
4%

Louisiana
5%

Maryland
54%

Minnesota
53%

Mississippi
46%

Missouri
54%

Montana
54%

Nebraska
46%

Nevada
77%

New Jersey
26%

New Mexico
46%

North Carolina
76%

North Dakota
54%

Ohio
5%

Oklahoma
45%

Oregon
62%

Pennsylvania
7%

South Carolina
53%

South Dakota
54%

Tennessee
26%

Texas
45%

Utah
64%

Virginia
9%

Washington
9%

West Virginia
2%

Wisconsin
39%

Wyoming
41%
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Texas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 8, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Texas market and make no claim about Texas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x65070BE91...D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Texas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 8, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Texas market and make no claim about Texas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Resolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., combined with persistent heat and precipitation deficits along the North Dakota–South Dakota–Minnesota border and parts of the Northeast, has driven expansion of extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of the September 1 map (valid through September 1, 2026), D4 covered roughly 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in areas with multi-week rainfall shortfalls and elevated evaporative demand. The National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, and USDA integrate station data, soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation indices to classify these conditions. The next USDM release, based on data through September 8, will reflect any late-summer rainfall or continued drying; short-term forecasts from the National Weather Service will be key inputs for potential category shifts in affected states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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