Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate contest, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) and Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), while Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) is positioned as the likely leader. Recent August polls, including Quaest and Phoenix, show Máximo ahead overall but a narrow contest for the second seat, with Cristina, Scheid, and Carvalho clustered within margins of error amid high undecided and invalid vote shares. The race remains tight due to overlapping right-leaning voter bases, variable second-preference patterns, and regional differences across the state’s interior and capital. Upcoming final-week campaigning, candidate visibility in key municipalities, and any last-minute shifts in alliances or turnout could alter the ordering before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia Cristina 44%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 25%
Mariana Carvalho 10.5%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 6.3%
$25,685 Vol.
$25,685 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
44%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
25%
Mariana Carvalho
10%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
6%
Acir Gurgacz
4%
Aires Mota
1%
Luciana Oliveira
1%
Neidinha
1%
Luis Fernando
<1%
Engenheiro Thulio
<1%
Sílvia Cristina 44%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 25%
Mariana Carvalho 10.5%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 6.3%
$25,685 Vol.
$25,685 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
$14,654 Vol.
44%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
$4,331 Vol.
25%
Mariana Carvalho
$1,552 Vol.
10%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
$1,189 Vol.
6%
Acir Gurgacz
$932 Vol.
4%
Aires Mota
$686 Vol.
1%
Luciana Oliveira
$423 Vol.
1%
Neidinha
$375 Vol.
1%
Luis Fernando
$501 Vol.
<1%
Engenheiro Thulio
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate contest, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) and Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), while Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) is positioned as the likely leader. Recent August polls, including Quaest and Phoenix, show Máximo ahead overall but a narrow contest for the second seat, with Cristina, Scheid, and Carvalho clustered within margins of error amid high undecided and invalid vote shares. The race remains tight due to overlapping right-leaning voter bases, variable second-preference patterns, and regional differences across the state’s interior and capital. Upcoming final-week campaigning, candidate visibility in key municipalities, and any last-minute shifts in alliances or turnout could alter the ordering before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Volume
$25,685End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate contest, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) and Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), while Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) is positioned as the likely leader. Recent August polls, including Quaest and Phoenix, show Máximo ahead overall but a narrow contest for the second seat, with Cristina, Scheid, and Carvalho clustered within margins of error amid high undecided and invalid vote shares. The race remains tight due to overlapping right-leaning voter bases, variable second-preference patterns, and regional differences across the state’s interior and capital. Upcoming final-week campaigning, candidate visibility in key municipalities, and any last-minute shifts in alliances or turnout could alter the ordering before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,685End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate contest, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL) and Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), while Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) is positioned as the likely leader. Recent August polls, including Quaest and Phoenix, show Máximo ahead overall but a narrow contest for the second seat, with Cristina, Scheid, and Carvalho clustered within margins of error amid high undecided and invalid vote shares. The race remains tight due to overlapping right-leaning voter bases, variable second-preference patterns, and regional differences across the state’s interior and capital. Upcoming final-week campaigning, candidate visibility in key municipalities, and any last-minute shifts in alliances or turnout could alter the ordering before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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