Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening further, are shifting the storm track southward and favoring below-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during September. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability of under 1 inch total, well below Seattle's 1.6-inch climatological average. Early-month low-pressure systems have delivered some rainfall, yet dynamical and statistical guidance points to drier patterns dominating the remainder of the period. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and recent dry Septembers reinforce trader positioning toward the lowest bin, though forecast uncertainty remains elevated as new model runs and observations arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seattle in September?
Precipitation in Seattle in September?
<1" 52%
1-1.5" 13%
1.5-2" 8%
2-2.5" 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
52%
1-1.5"
13%
1.5-2"
8%
2-2.5"
7%
>4"
6%
2.5-3"
4%
3-4"
4%
<1" 52%
1-1.5" 13%
1.5-2" 8%
2-2.5" 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
$436 Vol.
52%
1-1.5"
$278 Vol.
13%
1.5-2"
$298 Vol.
8%
2-2.5"
$241 Vol.
7%
>4"
$515 Vol.
6%
2.5-3"
$305 Vol.
4%
3-4"
$311 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening further, are shifting the storm track southward and favoring below-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during September. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability of under 1 inch total, well below Seattle's 1.6-inch climatological average. Early-month low-pressure systems have delivered some rainfall, yet dynamical and statistical guidance points to drier patterns dominating the remainder of the period. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and recent dry Septembers reinforce trader positioning toward the lowest bin, though forecast uncertainty remains elevated as new model runs and observations arrive.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$2,384End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening further, are shifting the storm track southward and favoring below-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during September. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability of under 1 inch total, well below Seattle's 1.6-inch climatological average. Early-month low-pressure systems have delivered some rainfall, yet dynamical and statistical guidance points to drier patterns dominating the remainder of the period. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and recent dry Septembers reinforce trader positioning toward the lowest bin, though forecast uncertainty remains elevated as new model runs and observations arrive.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,384End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +1.8°C and strengthening further, are shifting the storm track southward and favoring below-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest during September. This aligns with the market's leading implied probability of under 1 inch total, well below Seattle's 1.6-inch climatological average. Early-month low-pressure systems have delivered some rainfall, yet dynamical and statistical guidance points to drier patterns dominating the remainder of the period. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño years and recent dry Septembers reinforce trader positioning toward the lowest bin, though forecast uncertainty remains elevated as new model runs and observations arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions