Recent polling from mid-2026 shows Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) clustered tightly in the race for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Castro frequently ahead and the other two trading positions for second. High undecided shares, elevated rejection for Nogueira, and the requirement that voters select two distinct candidates sustain uncertainty over final ordering. Coalition alignments and second-preference flows among the main contenders further compress probabilities for any single finisher in second place. Late-cycle developments such as alliance shifts, targeted turnout efforts, or new survey releases could widen gaps before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Julio Cesar 36.3%
Ciro Nogueira 26%
Marcelo Castro 17.9%
Tiago Junqueira 3.8%
$38,964 Vol.
$38,964 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Julio Cesar
36%
Ciro Nogueira
26%
Marcelo Castro
21%
Tiago Junqueira
4%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 36.3%
Ciro Nogueira 26%
Marcelo Castro 17.9%
Tiago Junqueira 3.8%
$38,964 Vol.
$38,964 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Julio Cesar
$5,500 Vol.
36%
Ciro Nogueira
$11,889 Vol.
26%
Marcelo Castro
$8,155 Vol.
21%
Tiago Junqueira
$1,190 Vol.
4%
Toinho Dufrango
$782 Vol.
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
$815 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
$771 Vol.
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
$763 Vol.
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
$754 Vol.
<1%
Cloves José
$801 Vol.
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
$759 Vol.
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
$783 Vol.
<1%
Antônio José Lira
$778 Vol.
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
$782 Vol.
<1%
Antônio Barros
$730 Vol.
<1%
Danniel Rocha
$759 Vol.
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
$785 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Lopes
$643 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Sena
$791 Vol.
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
$732 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-2026 shows Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) clustered tightly in the race for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Castro frequently ahead and the other two trading positions for second. High undecided shares, elevated rejection for Nogueira, and the requirement that voters select two distinct candidates sustain uncertainty over final ordering. Coalition alignments and second-preference flows among the main contenders further compress probabilities for any single finisher in second place. Late-cycle developments such as alliance shifts, targeted turnout efforts, or new survey releases could widen gaps before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$38,964End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-2026 shows Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) clustered tightly in the race for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Castro frequently ahead and the other two trading positions for second. High undecided shares, elevated rejection for Nogueira, and the requirement that voters select two distinct candidates sustain uncertainty over final ordering. Coalition alignments and second-preference flows among the main contenders further compress probabilities for any single finisher in second place. Late-cycle developments such as alliance shifts, targeted turnout efforts, or new survey releases could widen gaps before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$38,964End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-2026 shows Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD) clustered tightly in the race for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Castro frequently ahead and the other two trading positions for second. High undecided shares, elevated rejection for Nogueira, and the requirement that voters select two distinct candidates sustain uncertainty over final ordering. Coalition alignments and second-preference flows among the main contenders further compress probabilities for any single finisher in second place. Late-cycle developments such as alliance shifts, targeted turnout efforts, or new survey releases could widen gaps before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions