Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois holds the strongest position in trader assessments for Quebec’s next premier, driven by the party’s sustained lead in provincial polling ahead of the October 5 election. The PQ maintains a clear advantage among francophone voters and benefits from first-past-the-post dynamics that favor concentrated support outside Montreal, producing favorable seat projections despite popular-vote margins often near five points or less. Christine Fréchette, the current CAQ premier since April 2026, has narrowed the gap in late-summer surveys amid focus on U.S. tariffs and economic management, yet her party trails after years of declining support. Charles Milliard’s Liberals and smaller parties remain further back, with limited paths to a plurality under current trends. The campaign, now underway with scheduled debates, leaves room for shifts before votes are cast.