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icon for Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?
Politics·Iran

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

icon for Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?
Politics·Iran

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

$54,247 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$54,247 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$8,101 Vol.

3%

December 31

$22,559 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ghalibaf was re-elected speaker in May 2026 with a commanding 235-vote majority for the third annual session of the 12th parliament, reflecting broad Principlist support despite factional tensions. A small group of ultraconservative Paydari MPs publicly challenged his leadership in June 2026 over his role as lead negotiator in U.S. talks, parliament closure during negotiations, and alleged violations of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's directives, but an internal tally showed fewer than 30 of 290 members opposed him. His position remains tied to post-February 2026 war dynamics, including the Islamabad MoU and ongoing diplomatic-military balancing amid U.S. sanctions and naval measures. Annual presiding board votes create recurring opportunities for shifts, though no major procedural changes or broader defections have materialized through early September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$54,247
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ghalibaf was re-elected speaker in May 2026 with a commanding 235-vote majority for the third annual session of the 12th parliament, reflecting broad Principlist support despite factional tensions. A small group of ultraconservative Paydari MPs publicly challenged his leadership in June 2026 over his role as lead negotiator in U.S. talks, parliament closure during negotiations, and alleged violations of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's directives, but an internal tally showed fewer than 30 of 290 members opposed him. His position remains tied to post-February 2026 war dynamics, including the Islamabad MoU and ongoing diplomatic-military balancing amid U.S. sanctions and naval measures. Annual presiding board votes create recurring opportunities for shifts, though no major procedural changes or broader defections have materialized through early September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$54,247
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 13%, followed by "September 30" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?" has generated $54.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?" is "December 31" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.