Recent readings show Mexico's headline inflation easing sharply to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 and 3.26% in August, the lowest levels since 2020, driven by softer non-core components including energy and agricultural prices. Core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.93-3.95%, remaining above Banco de México's 3% target amid sticky services prices. Analysts project a modest rebound by year-end toward 4.0-4.1% as food costs and base effects reassert themselves, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% and delays expected convergence to target until late 2027. These dynamics concentrate trader-implied odds on the 3.50-4.49% bands, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and persistent underlying pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 31.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.2%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$66,097 Vol.
$66,097 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
8%
2.50% to 2.99%
6%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
2%
3.50% to 3.99% 31.8%
4.00% to 4.49% 25%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.2%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$66,097 Vol.
$66,097 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,113 Vol.
8%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
6%
3.00% to 3.49%
$29,055 Vol.
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,203 Vol.
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
$13,129 Vol.
25%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,932 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,454 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,318 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent readings show Mexico's headline inflation easing sharply to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 and 3.26% in August, the lowest levels since 2020, driven by softer non-core components including energy and agricultural prices. Core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.93-3.95%, remaining above Banco de México's 3% target amid sticky services prices. Analysts project a modest rebound by year-end toward 4.0-4.1% as food costs and base effects reassert themselves, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% and delays expected convergence to target until late 2027. These dynamics concentrate trader-implied odds on the 3.50-4.49% bands, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and persistent underlying pressures.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$66,097End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent readings show Mexico's headline inflation easing sharply to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 and 3.26% in August, the lowest levels since 2020, driven by softer non-core components including energy and agricultural prices. Core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.93-3.95%, remaining above Banco de México's 3% target amid sticky services prices. Analysts project a modest rebound by year-end toward 4.0-4.1% as food costs and base effects reassert themselves, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% and delays expected convergence to target until late 2027. These dynamics concentrate trader-implied odds on the 3.50-4.49% bands, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and persistent underlying pressures.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$66,097End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent readings show Mexico's headline inflation easing sharply to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 and 3.26% in August, the lowest levels since 2020, driven by softer non-core components including energy and agricultural prices. Core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.93-3.95%, remaining above Banco de México's 3% target amid sticky services prices. Analysts project a modest rebound by year-end toward 4.0-4.1% as food costs and base effects reassert themselves, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% and delays expected convergence to target until late 2027. These dynamics concentrate trader-implied odds on the 3.50-4.49% bands, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and persistent underlying pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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