Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a minimum of 12–14 °C for Mexico City on September 6, 2026, under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered heavy rain and possible hail. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit nocturnal radiative cooling while also capping daytime heating, producing a narrower diurnal range centered near the seasonal September average low of ~12 °C. High-elevation urban heat-island effects and model spread in boundary-layer moisture create modest uncertainty between 11–15 °C outcomes, which dominate market-implied odds near 45–47 %. Colder scenarios below 10 °C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow not currently indicated by consensus guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
7°C or below 95%
10°C 88%
12°C 46%
13°C 46%
$191 Vol.
$191 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
95%
8°C
5%
9°C
5%
10°C
88%
11°C
45%
12°C
46%
13°C
46%
14°C
45%
15°C
45%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
7°C or below 95%
10°C 88%
12°C 46%
13°C 46%
$191 Vol.
$191 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
95%
8°C
$5 Vol.
5%
9°C
$5 Vol.
5%
10°C
$5 Vol.
88%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$10 Vol.
46%
14°C
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
45%
16°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$56 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a minimum of 12–14 °C for Mexico City on September 6, 2026, under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered heavy rain and possible hail. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit nocturnal radiative cooling while also capping daytime heating, producing a narrower diurnal range centered near the seasonal September average low of ~12 °C. High-elevation urban heat-island effects and model spread in boundary-layer moisture create modest uncertainty between 11–15 °C outcomes, which dominate market-implied odds near 45–47 %. Colder scenarios below 10 °C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow not currently indicated by consensus guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a minimum of 12–14 °C for Mexico City on September 6, 2026, under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered heavy rain and possible hail. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit nocturnal radiative cooling while also capping daytime heating, producing a narrower diurnal range centered near the seasonal September average low of ~12 °C. High-elevation urban heat-island effects and model spread in boundary-layer moisture create modest uncertainty between 11–15 °C outcomes, which dominate market-implied odds near 45–47 %. Colder scenarios below 10 °C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow not currently indicated by consensus guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a minimum of 12–14 °C for Mexico City on September 6, 2026, under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered heavy rain and possible hail. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation limit nocturnal radiative cooling while also capping daytime heating, producing a narrower diurnal range centered near the seasonal September average low of ~12 °C. High-elevation urban heat-island effects and model spread in boundary-layer moisture create modest uncertainty between 11–15 °C outcomes, which dominate market-implied odds near 45–47 %. Colder scenarios below 10 °C would require clearer skies or stronger northerly flow not currently indicated by consensus guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions