Current ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight spread for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 6, with trader-implied odds clustering around 11–14°C reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under transitional synoptic conditions. A weakening high-pressure ridge and variable low-level winds are modulating radiative cooling rates, while differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture advection from the North Sea create divergence between drier, clearer scenarios favoring lower minima near 11°C and moister, windier setups supporting 13–14°C. Historical September climatology indicates typical overnight lows around 12°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and surface wind speeds. Updated guidance from European centers expected overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 6?
12°C 38%
14°C 27%
11°C 26%
13°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
7%
9°C
14%
10°C
19%
11°C
26%
12°C
38%
13°C
24%
14°C
27%
15°C
14%
16°C
14%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
7%
12°C 38%
14°C 27%
11°C 26%
13°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
9°C
$0 Vol.
14%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
14%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight spread for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 6, with trader-implied odds clustering around 11–14°C reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under transitional synoptic conditions. A weakening high-pressure ridge and variable low-level winds are modulating radiative cooling rates, while differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture advection from the North Sea create divergence between drier, clearer scenarios favoring lower minima near 11°C and moister, windier setups supporting 13–14°C. Historical September climatology indicates typical overnight lows around 12°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and surface wind speeds. Updated guidance from European centers expected overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight spread for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 6, with trader-implied odds clustering around 11–14°C reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under transitional synoptic conditions. A weakening high-pressure ridge and variable low-level winds are modulating radiative cooling rates, while differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture advection from the North Sea create divergence between drier, clearer scenarios favoring lower minima near 11°C and moister, windier setups supporting 13–14°C. Historical September climatology indicates typical overnight lows around 12°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and surface wind speeds. Updated guidance from European centers expected overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight spread for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 6, with trader-implied odds clustering around 11–14°C reflecting uncertainty in nocturnal cooling under transitional synoptic conditions. A weakening high-pressure ridge and variable low-level winds are modulating radiative cooling rates, while differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture advection from the North Sea create divergence between drier, clearer scenarios favoring lower minima near 11°C and moister, windier setups supporting 13–14°C. Historical September climatology indicates typical overnight lows around 12°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and surface wind speeds. Updated guidance from European centers expected overnight will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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