Sébastien Lecornu has held the French premiership since his reappointment in October 2025, navigating a fragmented National Assembly where his minority government depends on ad hoc Socialist backing to defeat no-confidence motions. He has survived at least six censure attempts by securing concessions on social spending while avoiding repeated use of Article 49.3. Recent focus centers on the 2027 budget process amid stagnant growth, a persistent deficit, and agricultural aid demands following summer droughts, with parliamentary debates unfolding against the 2027 presidential campaign backdrop. Lecornu has publicly ruled out a presidential bid and emphasized fiscal stability to prevent a government shutdown or further crisis. These dynamics—fragile cross-party deals, opposition pressure from La France Insoumise and National Rally, and tight timelines for appropriations—drive trader assessments of removal risk before key legislative deadlines.