**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five X posts by the relevant Khamenei account(s) during September 1–8, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the established pattern of low-frequency official output from accounts linked to the late Ali Khamenei and successor Mojtaba Khamenei. Activity consists mainly of occasional statements distributed through formal channels rather than frequent main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts on X. Recent snapshots of @khamenei_ir show only sporadic updates, with no sustained increase in volume. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, policy announcements, or crisis developments are scheduled in the narrow resolution window that would typically prompt additional official communications. Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include sudden regional tensions, high-profile statements on ongoing conflicts or sanctions, or internal political milestones requiring rapid public messaging. Absent such catalysts, the low baseline activity observed in prior weeks supports the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts September 1 - September 8, 2026?
Khamenei # posts September 1 - September 8, 2026?
<5 96.8%
15-19 2.0%
5-9 2.0%
10-14 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
<5
97%
5-9
2%
10-14
2%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
1%
60+
<1%
<5 96.8%
15-19 2.0%
5-9 2.0%
10-14 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
<5
$2,131 Vol.
97%
5-9
$236 Vol.
2%
10-14
$579 Vol.
2%
15-19
$513 Vol.
2%
20-24
$179 Vol.
1%
25-29
$181 Vol.
1%
30-34
$188 Vol.
1%
35-39
$192 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$189 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$181 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$289 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$395 Vol.
1%
60+
$462 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five X posts by the relevant Khamenei account(s) during September 1–8, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the established pattern of low-frequency official output from accounts linked to the late Ali Khamenei and successor Mojtaba Khamenei. Activity consists mainly of occasional statements distributed through formal channels rather than frequent main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts on X. Recent snapshots of @khamenei_ir show only sporadic updates, with no sustained increase in volume. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, policy announcements, or crisis developments are scheduled in the narrow resolution window that would typically prompt additional official communications.
Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include sudden regional tensions, high-profile statements on ongoing conflicts or sanctions, or internal political milestones requiring rapid public messaging. Absent such catalysts, the low baseline activity observed in prior weeks supports the current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$5,713End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five X posts by the relevant Khamenei account(s) during September 1–8, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the established pattern of low-frequency official output from accounts linked to the late Ali Khamenei and successor Mojtaba Khamenei. Activity consists mainly of occasional statements distributed through formal channels rather than frequent main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts on X. Recent snapshots of @khamenei_ir show only sporadic updates, with no sustained increase in volume. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, policy announcements, or crisis developments are scheduled in the narrow resolution window that would typically prompt additional official communications.
Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include sudden regional tensions, high-profile statements on ongoing conflicts or sanctions, or internal political milestones requiring rapid public messaging. Absent such catalysts, the low baseline activity observed in prior weeks supports the current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 1, 12:00 PM ET and September 8, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$5,713End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five X posts by the relevant Khamenei account(s) during September 1–8, 2026, at 96.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the established pattern of low-frequency official output from accounts linked to the late Ali Khamenei and successor Mojtaba Khamenei. Activity consists mainly of occasional statements distributed through formal channels rather than frequent main-feed posts, quote posts, or reposts on X. Recent snapshots of @khamenei_ir show only sporadic updates, with no sustained increase in volume. No major diplomatic summits, military escalations, policy announcements, or crisis developments are scheduled in the narrow resolution window that would typically prompt additional official communications. Scenarios that could realistically increase volume include sudden regional tensions, high-profile statements on ongoing conflicts or sanctions, or internal political milestones requiring rapid public messaging. Absent such catalysts, the low baseline activity observed in prior weeks supports the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions