**Elevated activity through early September, with seven tropical cyclones already making landfall in China versus a seasonal average of roughly 4.9 by that date, underpins the market's strong preference for totals exceeding eight.** Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center projected 7–9 landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term mean of 7–9, amid above-normal Western North Pacific genesis (24 named systems by early September). Recent model consensus and National Meteorological Center guidance anticipate two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts in September, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, possible El Niño steering toward East Asia, and typical peak-season tracks. Remaining months carry lower but non-negligible risk, with resolution depending on CMA best-track confirmation of all intensities at landfall. Trader consensus reflects this active pattern while acknowledging variability in late-season recurvature and formation rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 69%
8 11%
6 4.9%
7 1%
$20,407 Vol.
$20,407 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
1%
6
7%
7
1%
8
11%
Greater than 8
69%
Greater than 8 69%
8 11%
6 4.9%
7 1%
$20,407 Vol.
$20,407 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,241 Vol.
<1%
5
$4,237 Vol.
1%
6
$2,740 Vol.
7%
7
$2,228 Vol.
1%
8
$2,703 Vol.
11%
Greater than 8
$7,258 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Elevated activity through early September, with seven tropical cyclones already making landfall in China versus a seasonal average of roughly 4.9 by that date, underpins the market's strong preference for totals exceeding eight.**
Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center projected 7–9 landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term mean of 7–9, amid above-normal Western North Pacific genesis (24 named systems by early September). Recent model consensus and National Meteorological Center guidance anticipate two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts in September, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, possible El Niño steering toward East Asia, and typical peak-season tracks. Remaining months carry lower but non-negligible risk, with resolution depending on CMA best-track confirmation of all intensities at landfall. Trader consensus reflects this active pattern while acknowledging variability in late-season recurvature and formation rates.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$20,407End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Elevated activity through early September, with seven tropical cyclones already making landfall in China versus a seasonal average of roughly 4.9 by that date, underpins the market's strong preference for totals exceeding eight.**
Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center projected 7–9 landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term mean of 7–9, amid above-normal Western North Pacific genesis (24 named systems by early September). Recent model consensus and National Meteorological Center guidance anticipate two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts in September, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, possible El Niño steering toward East Asia, and typical peak-season tracks. Remaining months carry lower but non-negligible risk, with resolution depending on CMA best-track confirmation of all intensities at landfall. Trader consensus reflects this active pattern while acknowledging variability in late-season recurvature and formation rates.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$20,407End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated activity through early September, with seven tropical cyclones already making landfall in China versus a seasonal average of roughly 4.9 by that date, underpins the market's strong preference for totals exceeding eight.** Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center projected 7–9 landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term mean of 7–9, amid above-normal Western North Pacific genesis (24 named systems by early September). Recent model consensus and National Meteorological Center guidance anticipate two to three additional landfalls or significant impacts in September, driven by favorable sea-surface temperatures, possible El Niño steering toward East Asia, and typical peak-season tracks. Remaining months carry lower but non-negligible risk, with resolution depending on CMA best-track confirmation of all intensities at landfall. Trader consensus reflects this active pattern while acknowledging variability in late-season recurvature and formation rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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