**High preliminary counts through late summer have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader.** As of August 31, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center reported 1,399 preliminary tornadoes for the year, driven by above-average activity in March (211), April (306), and especially June (399), when a major outbreak and derecho produced 99 confirmed tornadoes across the central and Midwest states. This northern shift in storm tracks, linked to jet stream patterns favoring the Midwest over traditional southern Tornado Alley, has sustained elevated totals despite near-average July and August figures. With fall months typically adding fewer events and no major tropical cyclone influences yet evident, trader consensus reflects the strong likelihood that final confirmed counts will exceed 1,250, consistent with official monitoring data and historical seasonal patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.8%
1150–1199 4.0%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,139 Vol.
$82,139 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
6%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.8%
1150–1199 4.0%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,139 Vol.
$82,139 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,728 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,619 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
6%
1250+
$18,916 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**High preliminary counts through late summer have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader.** As of August 31, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center reported 1,399 preliminary tornadoes for the year, driven by above-average activity in March (211), April (306), and especially June (399), when a major outbreak and derecho produced 99 confirmed tornadoes across the central and Midwest states. This northern shift in storm tracks, linked to jet stream patterns favoring the Midwest over traditional southern Tornado Alley, has sustained elevated totals despite near-average July and August figures. With fall months typically adding fewer events and no major tropical cyclone influences yet evident, trader consensus reflects the strong likelihood that final confirmed counts will exceed 1,250, consistent with official monitoring data and historical seasonal patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$82,139End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**High preliminary counts through late summer have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader.** As of August 31, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center reported 1,399 preliminary tornadoes for the year, driven by above-average activity in March (211), April (306), and especially June (399), when a major outbreak and derecho produced 99 confirmed tornadoes across the central and Midwest states. This northern shift in storm tracks, linked to jet stream patterns favoring the Midwest over traditional southern Tornado Alley, has sustained elevated totals despite near-average July and August figures. With fall months typically adding fewer events and no major tropical cyclone influences yet evident, trader consensus reflects the strong likelihood that final confirmed counts will exceed 1,250, consistent with official monitoring data and historical seasonal patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$82,139End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High preliminary counts through late summer have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the clear market leader.** As of August 31, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center reported 1,399 preliminary tornadoes for the year, driven by above-average activity in March (211), April (306), and especially June (399), when a major outbreak and derecho produced 99 confirmed tornadoes across the central and Midwest states. This northern shift in storm tracks, linked to jet stream patterns favoring the Midwest over traditional southern Tornado Alley, has sustained elevated totals despite near-average July and August figures. With fall months typically adding fewer events and no major tropical cyclone influences yet evident, trader consensus reflects the strong likelihood that final confirmed counts will exceed 1,250, consistent with official monitoring data and historical seasonal patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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