**Ongoing Houthi attacks and the Saudi maritime blockade declared in July 2026 have kept Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes subdued and volatile, with daily crossings fluctuating between roughly 30–40 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, shadow-fleet activity, and dark transits.** Recent data show stabilization near post-blockade lows, with 61 transits recorded over 48 hours ending August 31 and weekly aggregates in the 250–300 range earlier in August before easing. Mainstream tanker flows remain most constrained, while bulkers and some container traffic show modest resilience, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 190–230 buckets. Traders are weighing whether renewed threats or improved visibility will push counts higher or sustain the current compressed range through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 28%
210-229 23%
170-189 20%
230+ 15.0%
$36,148 Vol.
$36,148 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
3%
170-189
20%
190-209
28%
210-229
26%
230+
30%
190-209 28%
210-229 23%
170-189 20%
230+ 15.0%
$36,148 Vol.
$36,148 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$1,390 Vol.
3%
170-189
$4,251 Vol.
20%
190-209
$5,521 Vol.
28%
210-229
$10,264 Vol.
26%
230+
$14,763 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi attacks and the Saudi maritime blockade declared in July 2026 have kept Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes subdued and volatile, with daily crossings fluctuating between roughly 30–40 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, shadow-fleet activity, and dark transits.** Recent data show stabilization near post-blockade lows, with 61 transits recorded over 48 hours ending August 31 and weekly aggregates in the 250–300 range earlier in August before easing. Mainstream tanker flows remain most constrained, while bulkers and some container traffic show modest resilience, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 190–230 buckets. Traders are weighing whether renewed threats or improved visibility will push counts higher or sustain the current compressed range through resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$36,148End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi attacks and the Saudi maritime blockade declared in July 2026 have kept Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes subdued and volatile, with daily crossings fluctuating between roughly 30–40 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, shadow-fleet activity, and dark transits.** Recent data show stabilization near post-blockade lows, with 61 transits recorded over 48 hours ending August 31 and weekly aggregates in the 250–300 range earlier in August before easing. Mainstream tanker flows remain most constrained, while bulkers and some container traffic show modest resilience, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 190–230 buckets. Traders are weighing whether renewed threats or improved visibility will push counts higher or sustain the current compressed range through resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$36,148End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi attacks and the Saudi maritime blockade declared in July 2026 have kept Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes subdued and volatile, with daily crossings fluctuating between roughly 30–40 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums, shadow-fleet activity, and dark transits.** Recent data show stabilization near post-blockade lows, with 61 transits recorded over 48 hours ending August 31 and weekly aggregates in the 250–300 range earlier in August before easing. Mainstream tanker flows remain most constrained, while bulkers and some container traffic show modest resilience, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 190–230 buckets. Traders are weighing whether renewed threats or improved visibility will push counts higher or sustain the current compressed range through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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