Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through its network of seven strategic islands and coastal defenses that secure the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments center on Tehran’s efforts to institutionalize authority via a US-Iran memorandum and talks with Oman on joint administration and transit routes, alongside repeated assertions of sole responsibility for shipping lanes. Tensions persist with US Central Command strikes on Iranian targets in response to drone and missile actions against vessels, Iranian counterstrikes on US-linked sites, and declarations of expanded control zones as of early September 2026. These dynamics reflect Iran’s use of diplomacy, coercion, and military presence to deter challenges to its position, while Gulf states and the US reject mandatory fees or Iranian oversight. Upcoming negotiations and any escalation in maritime incidents remain key variables that could influence perceptions of territorial stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$70,725 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$70,725 Vol.
September 30
$448 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through its network of seven strategic islands and coastal defenses that secure the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments center on Tehran’s efforts to institutionalize authority via a US-Iran memorandum and talks with Oman on joint administration and transit routes, alongside repeated assertions of sole responsibility for shipping lanes. Tensions persist with US Central Command strikes on Iranian targets in response to drone and missile actions against vessels, Iranian counterstrikes on US-linked sites, and declarations of expanded control zones as of early September 2026. These dynamics reflect Iran’s use of diplomacy, coercion, and military presence to deter challenges to its position, while Gulf states and the US reject mandatory fees or Iranian oversight. Upcoming negotiations and any escalation in maritime incidents remain key variables that could influence perceptions of territorial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through its network of seven strategic islands and coastal defenses that secure the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments center on Tehran’s efforts to institutionalize authority via a US-Iran memorandum and talks with Oman on joint administration and transit routes, alongside repeated assertions of sole responsibility for shipping lanes. Tensions persist with US Central Command strikes on Iranian targets in response to drone and missile actions against vessels, Iranian counterstrikes on US-linked sites, and declarations of expanded control zones as of early September 2026. These dynamics reflect Iran’s use of diplomacy, coercion, and military presence to deter challenges to its position, while Gulf states and the US reject mandatory fees or Iranian oversight. Upcoming negotiations and any escalation in maritime incidents remain key variables that could influence perceptions of territorial stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through its network of seven strategic islands and coastal defenses that secure the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments center on Tehran’s efforts to institutionalize authority via a US-Iran memorandum and talks with Oman on joint administration and transit routes, alongside repeated assertions of sole responsibility for shipping lanes. Tensions persist with US Central Command strikes on Iranian targets in response to drone and missile actions against vessels, Iranian counterstrikes on US-linked sites, and declarations of expanded control zones as of early September 2026. These dynamics reflect Iran’s use of diplomacy, coercion, and military presence to deter challenges to its position, while Gulf states and the US reject mandatory fees or Iranian oversight. Upcoming negotiations and any escalation in maritime incidents remain key variables that could influence perceptions of territorial stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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