Iran has maintained primary governmental and military control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, coastal defenses, and missile facilities there as part of its Strait of Hormuz posture. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise-missile storage and launch sites on the island amid broader escalation over shipping lanes, degrading some operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or establishing alternative authority. Iran has since reinforced deployments, including new missile systems across the Tunb and Abu Musa islands in late August and early September, while continuing to register ownership documents and reject UAE sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. The UAE maintains its longstanding territorial position via statements and international forums, but no military or administrative shift has occurred. Trader consensus on low probability of changed control by late August 2026 aligns with the absence of verifiable developments altering on-ground Iranian administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$54,999 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$54,999 Vol.
September 30
$331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has maintained primary governmental and military control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, coastal defenses, and missile facilities there as part of its Strait of Hormuz posture. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise-missile storage and launch sites on the island amid broader escalation over shipping lanes, degrading some operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or establishing alternative authority. Iran has since reinforced deployments, including new missile systems across the Tunb and Abu Musa islands in late August and early September, while continuing to register ownership documents and reject UAE sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. The UAE maintains its longstanding territorial position via statements and international forums, but no military or administrative shift has occurred. Trader consensus on low probability of changed control by late August 2026 aligns with the absence of verifiable developments altering on-ground Iranian administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$54,999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran has maintained primary governmental and military control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, coastal defenses, and missile facilities there as part of its Strait of Hormuz posture. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise-missile storage and launch sites on the island amid broader escalation over shipping lanes, degrading some operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or establishing alternative authority. Iran has since reinforced deployments, including new missile systems across the Tunb and Abu Musa islands in late August and early September, while continuing to register ownership documents and reject UAE sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. The UAE maintains its longstanding territorial position via statements and international forums, but no military or administrative shift has occurred. Trader consensus on low probability of changed control by late August 2026 aligns with the absence of verifiable developments altering on-ground Iranian administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has maintained primary governmental and military control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, coastal defenses, and missile facilities there as part of its Strait of Hormuz posture. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise-missile storage and launch sites on the island amid broader escalation over shipping lanes, degrading some operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or establishing alternative authority. Iran has since reinforced deployments, including new missile systems across the Tunb and Abu Musa islands in late August and early September, while continuing to register ownership documents and reject UAE sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. The UAE maintains its longstanding territorial position via statements and international forums, but no military or administrative shift has occurred. Trader consensus on low probability of changed control by late August 2026 aligns with the absence of verifiable developments altering on-ground Iranian administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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