Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's opening round, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast where the incumbent consistently polls above 54% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Datafolha highlight sustained voter approval of Lula's federal performance alongside weak opposition organization and high rejection rates for potential challengers in the region. Trader consensus at 96% for Lula incorporates this historical base and current polling stability, though late-campaign shifts in turnout, economic conditions, or unexpected national developments could still narrow margins before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Lula 96.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.1%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Zema
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 96.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.1%
Zema <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,006 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$392 Vol.
2%
Zema
$291 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$272 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$272 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$318 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$329 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$406 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$329 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$286 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$285 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$329 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$329 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's opening round, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast where the incumbent consistently polls above 54% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Datafolha highlight sustained voter approval of Lula's federal performance alongside weak opposition organization and high rejection rates for potential challengers in the region. Trader consensus at 96% for Lula incorporates this historical base and current polling stability, though late-campaign shifts in turnout, economic conditions, or unexpected national developments could still narrow margins before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,843End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's opening round, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast where the incumbent consistently polls above 54% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Datafolha highlight sustained voter approval of Lula's federal performance alongside weak opposition organization and high rejection rates for potential challengers in the region. Trader consensus at 96% for Lula incorporates this historical base and current polling stability, though late-campaign shifts in turnout, economic conditions, or unexpected national developments could still narrow margins before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,843End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election's opening round, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast where the incumbent consistently polls above 54% against single-digit or low-20s support for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Datafolha highlight sustained voter approval of Lula's federal performance alongside weak opposition organization and high rejection rates for potential challengers in the region. Trader consensus at 96% for Lula incorporates this historical base and current polling stability, though late-campaign shifts in turnout, economic conditions, or unexpected national developments could still narrow margins before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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