Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place Die Linke ahead of the AfD in second-round vote intention, with Linke averaging near 20 percent and AfD near 18 percent across major surveys conducted in late August and early September. Linke has risen sharply from its 2023 result under candidate Elif Eralp by emphasizing housing affordability and public services, while AfD gains have been steadier but remain concentrated in outer districts. Berlin’s urban electorate and five-percent threshold dynamics further widen the gap in most models. The market’s 80 percent implied probability for Linke finishing first between the two mirrors this consistent polling edge, with only two weeks left before votes are cast.