The closely matched probabilities for the next Berlin governing mayor reflect a highly fragmented party landscape just two weeks before the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with no single force positioned for an outright majority. Incumbent Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal amid backlash over his handling of the January blackout has left the CDU under Stefan Evers defending a narrow base, while Die Linke’s Elif Eralp benefits from strong polling on housing affordability and rent controls. Coalition arithmetic remains decisive: viable paths include a left-leaning alliance of Linke, SPD, and Greens or arrangements involving the CDU, but AfD exclusion and internal party frictions sustain uncertainty. Late polling shifts, turnout among younger voters, or pre-election alliance signals could quickly separate frontrunners in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp 49%
Stefan Evers 41%
Werner Graf 9.2%
Steffen Krach 1.1%
$75,599 Vol.
$75,599 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
49%
Stefan Evers
41%
Werner Graf
9%
Steffen Krach
1%
Kristin Brinker
<1%
Elif Eralp 49%
Stefan Evers 41%
Werner Graf 9.2%
Steffen Krach 1.1%
$75,599 Vol.
$75,599 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
$40,204 Vol.
49%
Stefan Evers
$21,395 Vol.
41%
Werner Graf
$9,060 Vol.
9%
Steffen Krach
$2,332 Vol.
1%
Kristin Brinker
$2,609 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities for the next Berlin governing mayor reflect a highly fragmented party landscape just two weeks before the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with no single force positioned for an outright majority. Incumbent Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal amid backlash over his handling of the January blackout has left the CDU under Stefan Evers defending a narrow base, while Die Linke’s Elif Eralp benefits from strong polling on housing affordability and rent controls. Coalition arithmetic remains decisive: viable paths include a left-leaning alliance of Linke, SPD, and Greens or arrangements involving the CDU, but AfD exclusion and internal party frictions sustain uncertainty. Late polling shifts, turnout among younger voters, or pre-election alliance signals could quickly separate frontrunners in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volume
$75,599End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities for the next Berlin governing mayor reflect a highly fragmented party landscape just two weeks before the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with no single force positioned for an outright majority. Incumbent Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal amid backlash over his handling of the January blackout has left the CDU under Stefan Evers defending a narrow base, while Die Linke’s Elif Eralp benefits from strong polling on housing affordability and rent controls. Coalition arithmetic remains decisive: viable paths include a left-leaning alliance of Linke, SPD, and Greens or arrangements involving the CDU, but AfD exclusion and internal party frictions sustain uncertainty. Late polling shifts, turnout among younger voters, or pre-election alliance signals could quickly separate frontrunners in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,599End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for the next Berlin governing mayor reflect a highly fragmented party landscape just two weeks before the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with no single force positioned for an outright majority. Incumbent Kai Wegner’s July withdrawal amid backlash over his handling of the January blackout has left the CDU under Stefan Evers defending a narrow base, while Die Linke’s Elif Eralp benefits from strong polling on housing affordability and rent controls. Coalition arithmetic remains decisive: viable paths include a left-leaning alliance of Linke, SPD, and Greens or arrangements involving the CDU, but AfD exclusion and internal party frictions sustain uncertainty. Late polling shifts, turnout among younger voters, or pre-election alliance signals could quickly separate frontrunners in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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