Recent polls for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU between 18% and 21%, producing a narrow contest around the 20% threshold. The party’s support has fallen from its 28% result in the 2023 repeat vote amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU–SPD coalition and the late replacement of Mayor Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers. A fragmented field featuring the Left Party near 19–22%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens near 16–18% has compressed the CDU’s margin while low party loyalty and late-deciding voters add volatility. The “Under” side’s slim lead in trader consensus reflects these tight aggregates and the possibility that modest shifts in turnout or final-week developments could push the CDU either side of the line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
47% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
47% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU between 18% and 21%, producing a narrow contest around the 20% threshold. The party’s support has fallen from its 28% result in the 2023 repeat vote amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU–SPD coalition and the late replacement of Mayor Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers. A fragmented field featuring the Left Party near 19–22%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens near 16–18% has compressed the CDU’s margin while low party loyalty and late-deciding voters add volatility. The “Under” side’s slim lead in trader consensus reflects these tight aggregates and the possibility that modest shifts in turnout or final-week developments could push the CDU either side of the line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,746End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU between 18% and 21%, producing a narrow contest around the 20% threshold. The party’s support has fallen from its 28% result in the 2023 repeat vote amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU–SPD coalition and the late replacement of Mayor Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers. A fragmented field featuring the Left Party near 19–22%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens near 16–18% has compressed the CDU’s margin while low party loyalty and late-deciding voters add volatility. The “Under” side’s slim lead in trader consensus reflects these tight aggregates and the possibility that modest shifts in turnout or final-week developments could push the CDU either side of the line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,746End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU between 18% and 21%, producing a narrow contest around the 20% threshold. The party’s support has fallen from its 28% result in the 2023 repeat vote amid voter fatigue with the governing CDU–SPD coalition and the late replacement of Mayor Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers. A fragmented field featuring the Left Party near 19–22%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens near 16–18% has compressed the CDU’s margin while low party loyalty and late-deciding voters add volatility. The “Under” side’s slim lead in trader consensus reflects these tight aggregates and the possibility that modest shifts in turnout or final-week developments could push the CDU either side of the line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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