**Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election show Die Linke consistently ahead of the CDU in projected vote share.** Multiple surveys from late August place Linke at 11% and the CDU at 8–10%, a pattern holding across Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA fieldwork. This gap underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on election night. The CDU has remained in the single digits for months, reflecting limited momentum in a polarized contest dominated by the AfD and the incumbent SPD. Linke, by contrast, has held steady near or above its 2021 result while serving in the governing SPD–Linke coalition. Its position as the junior partner in the current administration and its established voter base in the state have helped maintain support even as the coalition overall trails the AfD in most surveys. With the vote only weeks away, the narrow but persistent polling lead for Linke over the CDU has translated into the current trader consensus. No major late-campaign developments have reversed this ordering in the most recent data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCDU
27% chance
$16,186 Vol.
$16,186 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
27% chance
$16,186 Vol.
$16,186 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election show Die Linke consistently ahead of the CDU in projected vote share.** Multiple surveys from late August place Linke at 11% and the CDU at 8–10%, a pattern holding across Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA fieldwork. This gap underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on election night.
The CDU has remained in the single digits for months, reflecting limited momentum in a polarized contest dominated by the AfD and the incumbent SPD. Linke, by contrast, has held steady near or above its 2021 result while serving in the governing SPD–Linke coalition. Its position as the junior partner in the current administration and its established voter base in the state have helped maintain support even as the coalition overall trails the AfD in most surveys.
With the vote only weeks away, the narrow but persistent polling lead for Linke over the CDU has translated into the current trader consensus. No major late-campaign developments have reversed this ordering in the most recent data releases.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$16,186End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election show Die Linke consistently ahead of the CDU in projected vote share.** Multiple surveys from late August place Linke at 11% and the CDU at 8–10%, a pattern holding across Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA fieldwork. This gap underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on election night.
The CDU has remained in the single digits for months, reflecting limited momentum in a polarized contest dominated by the AfD and the incumbent SPD. Linke, by contrast, has held steady near or above its 2021 result while serving in the governing SPD–Linke coalition. Its position as the junior partner in the current administration and its established voter base in the state have helped maintain support even as the coalition overall trails the AfD in most surveys.
With the vote only weeks away, the narrow but persistent polling lead for Linke over the CDU has translated into the current trader consensus. No major late-campaign developments have reversed this ordering in the most recent data releases.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$16,186End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election show Die Linke consistently ahead of the CDU in projected vote share.** Multiple surveys from late August place Linke at 11% and the CDU at 8–10%, a pattern holding across Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA fieldwork. This gap underpins the market’s 72.5% implied probability for Linke finishing ahead on election night. The CDU has remained in the single digits for months, reflecting limited momentum in a polarized contest dominated by the AfD and the incumbent SPD. Linke, by contrast, has held steady near or above its 2021 result while serving in the governing SPD–Linke coalition. Its position as the junior partner in the current administration and its established voter base in the state have helped maintain support even as the coalition overall trails the AfD in most surveys. With the vote only weeks away, the narrow but persistent polling lead for Linke over the CDU has translated into the current trader consensus. No major late-campaign developments have reversed this ordering in the most recent data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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