Recent polling from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA has held the Greens steady at 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September Landtag election, placing them precisely at the 5% entry threshold. This stability stems from limited movement among smaller parties, with BSW and FDP consistently below the hurdle while the Greens benefit from modest SPD gains that could support a potential red-red-green majority. Internal candidate adjustments and competition for environmentally focused or progressive voters in a region dominated by AfD and SPD support have kept their share contained. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters, clearer coalition signals from the SPD, or last-minute national developments affecting smaller-party fragmentation could push results above or below the key 5% line and widen the gap between the 3-5% and 5-7% market outcomes.