Recent polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, conducted in late August and early September 2026 ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, show Alliance 90/The Greens at a steady 5 percent while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 4 percent. This gap has held across multiple institutes including Infratest dimap and Forsa, with the Greens maintaining their position near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry and the BSW consistently below it. The SPD’s recent gains have not altered these relative standings, and no major campaign events or shifts in voter preferences have narrowed the margin in the final weeks. Traders therefore assign Grüne an 82 percent implied probability of receiving more votes, reflecting the stable polling differential and limited time remaining before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBSW
0% chance
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Sep 20, 2026
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Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, conducted in late August and early September 2026 ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, show Alliance 90/The Greens at a steady 5 percent while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 4 percent. This gap has held across multiple institutes including Infratest dimap and Forsa, with the Greens maintaining their position near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry and the BSW consistently below it. The SPD’s recent gains have not altered these relative standings, and no major campaign events or shifts in voter preferences have narrowed the margin in the final weeks. Traders therefore assign Grüne an 82 percent implied probability of receiving more votes, reflecting the stable polling differential and limited time remaining before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,515End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, conducted in late August and early September 2026 ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, show Alliance 90/The Greens at a steady 5 percent while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 4 percent. This gap has held across multiple institutes including Infratest dimap and Forsa, with the Greens maintaining their position near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry and the BSW consistently below it. The SPD’s recent gains have not altered these relative standings, and no major campaign events or shifts in voter preferences have narrowed the margin in the final weeks. Traders therefore assign Grüne an 82 percent implied probability of receiving more votes, reflecting the stable polling differential and limited time remaining before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$2,515End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, conducted in late August and early September 2026 ahead of the September 20 Landtagswahl, show Alliance 90/The Greens at a steady 5 percent while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) remains at 4 percent. This gap has held across multiple institutes including Infratest dimap and Forsa, with the Greens maintaining their position near the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry and the BSW consistently below it. The SPD’s recent gains have not altered these relative standings, and no major campaign events or shifts in voter preferences have narrowed the margin in the final weeks. Traders therefore assign Grüne an 82 percent implied probability of receiving more votes, reflecting the stable polling differential and limited time remaining before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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