Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the SPD at or above 28 percent in multiple surveys conducted in late August 2026, with Infratest dimap placing the party at 32 percent after a three-point gain since July. This upward movement reflects the incumbency advantage of Minister President Manuela Schwesig, whose personal approval remains high ahead of the September 20 election, alongside gains for the governing SPD-Left coalition in direct comparisons. Traders price the Over 28 percent outcome at 76.5 percent because the party’s trajectory in the final campaign weeks has consistently exceeded that threshold across recent fieldwork, even as the AfD leads overall. A late reversal would require significant shifts in voter preferences not yet evident in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
77% chance
$12,452 Vol.
$12,452 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Over
77% chance
$12,452 Vol.
$12,452 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the SPD at or above 28 percent in multiple surveys conducted in late August 2026, with Infratest dimap placing the party at 32 percent after a three-point gain since July. This upward movement reflects the incumbency advantage of Minister President Manuela Schwesig, whose personal approval remains high ahead of the September 20 election, alongside gains for the governing SPD-Left coalition in direct comparisons. Traders price the Over 28 percent outcome at 76.5 percent because the party’s trajectory in the final campaign weeks has consistently exceeded that threshold across recent fieldwork, even as the AfD leads overall. A late reversal would require significant shifts in voter preferences not yet evident in available data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$12,452End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the SPD at or above 28 percent in multiple surveys conducted in late August 2026, with Infratest dimap placing the party at 32 percent after a three-point gain since July. This upward movement reflects the incumbency advantage of Minister President Manuela Schwesig, whose personal approval remains high ahead of the September 20 election, alongside gains for the governing SPD-Left coalition in direct comparisons. Traders price the Over 28 percent outcome at 76.5 percent because the party’s trajectory in the final campaign weeks has consistently exceeded that threshold across recent fieldwork, even as the AfD leads overall. A late reversal would require significant shifts in voter preferences not yet evident in available data.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$12,452End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the SPD at or above 28 percent in multiple surveys conducted in late August 2026, with Infratest dimap placing the party at 32 percent after a three-point gain since July. This upward movement reflects the incumbency advantage of Minister President Manuela Schwesig, whose personal approval remains high ahead of the September 20 election, alongside gains for the governing SPD-Left coalition in direct comparisons. Traders price the Over 28 percent outcome at 76.5 percent because the party’s trajectory in the final campaign weeks has consistently exceeded that threshold across recent fieldwork, even as the AfD leads overall. A late reversal would require significant shifts in voter preferences not yet evident in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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