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icon for Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
World·Berlin

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

icon for Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
World·Berlin

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,235 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for SPD

SPD

$243 Vol.

90%

icon for Grüne

Grüne

$118 Vol.

87%

icon for CDU

CDU

$1,490 Vol.

41%

icon for Linke

Linke

$1,964 Vol.

30%

icon for FW

FW

$661 Vol.

4%

icon for FDP

FDP

$210 Vol.

4%

icon for BSW

BSW

$280 Vol.

4%

icon for AfD

AfD

$1,269 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives current trader focus, with recent polls showing CDU, Greens, Left, and AfD clustered between roughly 15-22 percent and SPD trailing near 11-15 percent. This fragmentation makes two-party majorities unlikely after the current CDU-SPD coalition, whose mayor Kai Wegner stepped back as candidate following scrutiny over a major power outage response. Viable paths to government center on three-party options such as SPD-Greens-Left or CDU-Greens-SPD, while FDP and BSW remain below the threshold. Key campaign factors include housing policy disputes, public safety concerns, and turnout among younger voters newly eligible at 16. Coalition negotiations after results will determine the final senate composition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,235
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election drives current trader focus, with recent polls showing CDU, Greens, Left, and AfD clustered between roughly 15-22 percent and SPD trailing near 11-15 percent. This fragmentation makes two-party majorities unlikely after the current CDU-SPD coalition, whose mayor Kai Wegner stepped back as candidate following scrutiny over a major power outage response. Viable paths to government center on three-party options such as SPD-Greens-Left or CDU-Greens-SPD, while FDP and BSW remain below the threshold. Key campaign factors include housing policy disputes, public safety concerns, and turnout among younger voters newly eligible at 16. Coalition negotiations after results will determine the final senate composition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,235
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "SPD" at 90%, followed by "Grüne" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" is "SPD" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Grüne" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.