Recent polling shows the AfD maintaining a commanding lead above 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of its September 6 vote, positioning the party for the largest share of seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5 percent threshold. Similar strength at around 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20 supports expectations of another first-place finish there. In Berlin the same day, the AfD trails at roughly 18 percent behind the CDU, Left Party, and others, reducing its chances of topping the seat count. These eastern-state advantages, fueled by sustained voter focus on immigration and federal government performance under Chancellor Merz, underpin the market's emphasis on two outcomes while leaving limited room for a third.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 75%
1 15.1%
3 11.9%
0 <1%
$110,040 Vol.
$110,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
15%
2
75%
3
12%
2 75%
1 15.1%
3 11.9%
0 <1%
$110,040 Vol.
$110,040 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$13,980 Vol.
<1%
1
$22,458 Vol.
15%
2
$46,741 Vol.
75%
3
$26,861 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. Recent polling shows the AfD maintaining a commanding lead above 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of its September 6 vote, positioning the party for the largest share of seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5 percent threshold. Similar strength at around 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20 supports expectations of another first-place finish there. In Berlin the same day, the AfD trails at roughly 18 percent behind the CDU, Left Party, and others, reducing its chances of topping the seat count. These eastern-state advantages, fueled by sustained voter focus on immigration and federal government performance under Chancellor Merz, underpin the market's emphasis on two outcomes while leaving limited room for a third.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$110,040End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. Recent polling shows the AfD maintaining a commanding lead above 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of its September 6 vote, positioning the party for the largest share of seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5 percent threshold. Similar strength at around 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20 supports expectations of another first-place finish there. In Berlin the same day, the AfD trails at roughly 18 percent behind the CDU, Left Party, and others, reducing its chances of topping the seat count. These eastern-state advantages, fueled by sustained voter focus on immigration and federal government performance under Chancellor Merz, underpin the market's emphasis on two outcomes while leaving limited room for a third.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$110,040End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the AfD maintaining a commanding lead above 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of its September 6 vote, positioning the party for the largest share of seats and potentially an outright majority if smaller parties fall below the 5 percent threshold. Similar strength at around 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20 supports expectations of another first-place finish there. In Berlin the same day, the AfD trails at roughly 18 percent behind the CDU, Left Party, and others, reducing its chances of topping the seat count. These eastern-state advantages, fueled by sustained voter focus on immigration and federal government performance under Chancellor Merz, underpin the market's emphasis on two outcomes while leaving limited room for a third.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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