Recent polling consistently places the AfD at 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, well below the threshold needed for an absolute majority of seats in the 71-member parliament under the state's proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. The SPD trails at 28-32 percent while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW split the remainder and are projected to clear the five-percent threshold in most scenarios, further diluting any single party's seat share. Other parties maintain firm opposition to coalitions with the AfD, raising the bar for outright control. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent reflects these stable survey trends and the structural math of German state elections. A sharp late surge in AfD turnout or multiple minor parties falling below the threshold remain the primary variables that could still shift seat projections before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
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Sep 20, 2026
3% chance
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Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling consistently places the AfD at 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, well below the threshold needed for an absolute majority of seats in the 71-member parliament under the state's proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. The SPD trails at 28-32 percent while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW split the remainder and are projected to clear the five-percent threshold in most scenarios, further diluting any single party's seat share. Other parties maintain firm opposition to coalitions with the AfD, raising the bar for outright control. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent reflects these stable survey trends and the structural math of German state elections. A sharp late surge in AfD turnout or multiple minor parties falling below the threshold remain the primary variables that could still shift seat projections before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,199End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling consistently places the AfD at 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, well below the threshold needed for an absolute majority of seats in the 71-member parliament under the state's proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. The SPD trails at 28-32 percent while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW split the remainder and are projected to clear the five-percent threshold in most scenarios, further diluting any single party's seat share. Other parties maintain firm opposition to coalitions with the AfD, raising the bar for outright control. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent reflects these stable survey trends and the structural math of German state elections. A sharp late surge in AfD turnout or multiple minor parties falling below the threshold remain the primary variables that could still shift seat projections before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$2,199End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling consistently places the AfD at 35-37 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, well below the threshold needed for an absolute majority of seats in the 71-member parliament under the state's proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. The SPD trails at 28-32 percent while smaller parties including the Left, CDU, Greens, and BSW split the remainder and are projected to clear the five-percent threshold in most scenarios, further diluting any single party's seat share. Other parties maintain firm opposition to coalitions with the AfD, raising the bar for outright control. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent reflects these stable survey trends and the structural math of German state elections. A sharp late surge in AfD turnout or multiple minor parties falling below the threshold remain the primary variables that could still shift seat projections before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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