Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike occurring in 2026 because such events remain statistically rare, with global monitoring networks detecting no objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that yield. NASA and ESA surveys, combined with historical frequency data from airbursts like Chelyabinsk, show average recurrence intervals spanning decades for objects in this size range. Continuous radar and optical tracking through the remainder of the year would need an undetected near-Earth object to evade all systems and impact before December 31 for the market to resolve yes. Even modest improvements in atmospheric entry modeling or last-minute observations could reinforce the current consensus without altering the underlying low base rate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% chance
$116,911 Vol.
$116,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$116,911 Vol.
$116,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike occurring in 2026 because such events remain statistically rare, with global monitoring networks detecting no objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that yield. NASA and ESA surveys, combined with historical frequency data from airbursts like Chelyabinsk, show average recurrence intervals spanning decades for objects in this size range. Continuous radar and optical tracking through the remainder of the year would need an undetected near-Earth object to evade all systems and impact before December 31 for the market to resolve yes. Even modest improvements in atmospheric entry modeling or last-minute observations could reinforce the current consensus without altering the underlying low base rate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike occurring in 2026 because such events remain statistically rare, with global monitoring networks detecting no objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that yield. NASA and ESA surveys, combined with historical frequency data from airbursts like Chelyabinsk, show average recurrence intervals spanning decades for objects in this size range. Continuous radar and optical tracking through the remainder of the year would need an undetected near-Earth object to evade all systems and impact before December 31 for the market to resolve yes. Even modest improvements in atmospheric entry modeling or last-minute observations could reinforce the current consensus without altering the underlying low base rate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike occurring in 2026 because such events remain statistically rare, with global monitoring networks detecting no objects on collision trajectories large enough to produce that yield. NASA and ESA surveys, combined with historical frequency data from airbursts like Chelyabinsk, show average recurrence intervals spanning decades for objects in this size range. Continuous radar and optical tracking through the remainder of the year would need an undetected near-Earth object to evade all systems and impact before December 31 for the market to resolve yes. Even modest improvements in atmospheric entry modeling or last-minute observations could reinforce the current consensus without altering the underlying low base rate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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