Republican incumbent Riley Moore holds a commanding position in West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Ace Parsi. The district’s consistent R+20 partisan rating, combined with Moore’s unopposed primary and strong fundraising, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% Republican probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the state’s broader shift toward the party and limited Democratic infrastructure. With no major developments since the May primaries, probabilities remain stable. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant candidate scandal, unexpected health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic performance capable of overcoming the district’s structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWV-02 House Election Winner
WV-02 House Election Winner
$96,870 Vol.
$96,870 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
2%
$96,870 Vol.
$96,870 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$68,506 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$28,364 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Riley Moore holds a commanding position in West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Ace Parsi. The district’s consistent R+20 partisan rating, combined with Moore’s unopposed primary and strong fundraising, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% Republican probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the state’s broader shift toward the party and limited Democratic infrastructure. With no major developments since the May primaries, probabilities remain stable. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant candidate scandal, unexpected health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic performance capable of overcoming the district’s structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$96,870End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Riley Moore holds a commanding position in West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Ace Parsi. The district’s consistent R+20 partisan rating, combined with Moore’s unopposed primary and strong fundraising, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% Republican probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the state’s broader shift toward the party and limited Democratic infrastructure. With no major developments since the May primaries, probabilities remain stable. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant candidate scandal, unexpected health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic performance capable of overcoming the district’s structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$96,870End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Riley Moore holds a commanding position in West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election against Democrat Ace Parsi. The district’s consistent R+20 partisan rating, combined with Moore’s unopposed primary and strong fundraising, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.3% Republican probability. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the state’s broader shift toward the party and limited Democratic infrastructure. With no major developments since the May primaries, probabilities remain stable. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant candidate scandal, unexpected health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic performance capable of overcoming the district’s structural Republican advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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