**Trader consensus reflects the limited scope of recent US-Iran military exchanges and sustained diplomatic engagement.** Direct US airstrikes and responses since the February 2026 conflict onset have targeted Iranian military sites, missile capabilities, and Strait of Hormuz threats, without evidence of preparations for large-scale ground operations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding paused major fighting and launched talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and navigation, though periodic clashes continue into September. Analysts and officials consistently describe a full invasion as extraordinarily risky and resource-intensive given Iran's size and forces, favoring instead naval escorts, targeted strikes, and economic pressure. With only months remaining before 2027 and no shift toward ground commitments, the 85.5% probability on "No" aligns with this pattern of calibrated actions over escalation to invasion.