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Geopolitics·Middle East

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

icon for Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Oct 31

Dec 31

Oct 31

Dec 31

10% chance
Polymarket

$302,620 Vol.

10% chance
Polymarket

$302,620 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization talks and enduring regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, the most consequential prospective participant, continues to condition any agreement on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure including the linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to accession. President Trump’s May 2026 calls for a bloc of Muslim-majority states to join as part of Iran-related diplomacy received limited engagement, with officials in Riyadh, Doha, and Ankara signaling reluctance or outright dismissal. Kazakhstan’s late-2025 accession remains the most recent addition, largely symbolic given preexisting ties. Ongoing post-conflict dynamics, Palestinian issue sensitivities, and competing regional alignments have prevented further breakthroughs, leaving little time for a new signatory by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$302,620
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization talks and enduring regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, the most consequential prospective participant, continues to condition any agreement on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure including the linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to accession. President Trump’s May 2026 calls for a bloc of Muslim-majority states to join as part of Iran-related diplomacy received limited engagement, with officials in Riyadh, Doha, and Ankara signaling reluctance or outright dismissal. Kazakhstan’s late-2025 accession remains the most recent addition, largely symbolic given preexisting ties. Ongoing post-conflict dynamics, Palestinian issue sensitivities, and competing regional alignments have prevented further breakthroughs, leaving little time for a new signatory by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$302,620
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" has generated $302.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.