Ongoing bilateral talks under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, provide the main driver for trader expectations of a tariff agreement by year-end. Officials have advanced a reciprocal framework targeting roughly $30 billion in tariff relief on non-sensitive goods per side, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, and market access for U.S. beef and poultry. The one-year truce reached in Busan in October 2025 suspends higher duties until November 2026, with some Chinese measures extended to December 31, while USTR’s public comment process on relief has concluded and follow-up negotiations continue ahead of Xi’s planned September U.S. visit. Section 301 replacement tariffs remain within prior agreed ceilings, and both governments have signaled continued engagement to stabilize trade flows before the truce window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
90% chance
$242,442 Vol.
$242,442 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
90% chance
$242,442 Vol.
$242,442 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, provide the main driver for trader expectations of a tariff agreement by year-end. Officials have advanced a reciprocal framework targeting roughly $30 billion in tariff relief on non-sensitive goods per side, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, and market access for U.S. beef and poultry. The one-year truce reached in Busan in October 2025 suspends higher duties until November 2026, with some Chinese measures extended to December 31, while USTR’s public comment process on relief has concluded and follow-up negotiations continue ahead of Xi’s planned September U.S. visit. Section 301 replacement tariffs remain within prior agreed ceilings, and both governments have signaled continued engagement to stabilize trade flows before the truce window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$242,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, provide the main driver for trader expectations of a tariff agreement by year-end. Officials have advanced a reciprocal framework targeting roughly $30 billion in tariff relief on non-sensitive goods per side, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, and market access for U.S. beef and poultry. The one-year truce reached in Busan in October 2025 suspends higher duties until November 2026, with some Chinese measures extended to December 31, while USTR’s public comment process on relief has concluded and follow-up negotiations continue ahead of Xi’s planned September U.S. visit. Section 301 replacement tariffs remain within prior agreed ceilings, and both governments have signaled continued engagement to stabilize trade flows before the truce window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$242,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral talks under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, provide the main driver for trader expectations of a tariff agreement by year-end. Officials have advanced a reciprocal framework targeting roughly $30 billion in tariff relief on non-sensitive goods per side, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, and market access for U.S. beef and poultry. The one-year truce reached in Busan in October 2025 suspends higher duties until November 2026, with some Chinese measures extended to December 31, while USTR’s public comment process on relief has concluded and follow-up negotiations continue ahead of Xi’s planned September U.S. visit. Section 301 replacement tariffs remain within prior agreed ceilings, and both governments have signaled continued engagement to stabilize trade flows before the truce window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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