Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by prolonged precipitation deficits and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures, has expanded extreme-to-exceptional (D3-D4) conditions from Texas into Oklahoma, Kansas, and adjacent areas, while lingering long-term deficits sustain D4 pockets in parts of the West and Northern Plains. The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 showed 1.4% of the contiguous U.S. in D4, concentrated in a limited number of states, with the next weekly map (data through September 8) poised to reflect any short-term relief from early-September rains or further degradation. Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor below-normal precipitation in the central Plains through mid-month, heightening persistence risk, though model consensus on rapid changes remains moderate given seasonal transition and potential monsoon influences. These dynamics underpin trader emphasis on either widespread D4 coverage or swift reduction to zero states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
10 or more states 57%
7-9 states 37%
0 states 37%
1-2 states 36%
0 states
37%
1-2 states
36%
3-4 states
34%
5-6 states
34%
7-9 states
37%
10 or more states
57%
10 or more states 57%
7-9 states 37%
0 states 37%
1-2 states 36%
0 states
37%
1-2 states
36%
3-4 states
34%
5-6 states
34%
7-9 states
37%
10 or more states
57%
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Resolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by prolonged precipitation deficits and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures, has expanded extreme-to-exceptional (D3-D4) conditions from Texas into Oklahoma, Kansas, and adjacent areas, while lingering long-term deficits sustain D4 pockets in parts of the West and Northern Plains. The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 showed 1.4% of the contiguous U.S. in D4, concentrated in a limited number of states, with the next weekly map (data through September 8) poised to reflect any short-term relief from early-September rains or further degradation. Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor below-normal precipitation in the central Plains through mid-month, heightening persistence risk, though model consensus on rapid changes remains moderate given seasonal transition and potential monsoon influences. These dynamics underpin trader emphasis on either widespread D4 coverage or swift reduction to zero states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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