Hong Kong Observatory's late-August outlook for normal-to-below-normal September rainfall underpins the 61.5% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach record levels by late 2026, is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and favor a stronger subtropical ridge over southern China during the month's second half, limiting moisture convergence. Early September has already delivered scattered showers from low-pressure troughs, yet model consensus points to drier conditions ahead. Remaining uncertainty centers on any late-month cyclone tracks or forecast revisions from the Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 62%
275-300mm 15%
325-350mm 10%
550mm+ 7.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
62%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
10%
350-375mm
4%
375-400mm
4%
400-450mm
4%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
3%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 62%
275-300mm 15%
325-350mm 10%
550mm+ 7.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$6,799 Vol.
62%
275-300mm
$283 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$185 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$206 Vol.
10%
350-375mm
$195 Vol.
4%
375-400mm
$194 Vol.
4%
400-450mm
$210 Vol.
4%
450-500mm
$235 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$206 Vol.
3%
550mm+
$223 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's late-August outlook for normal-to-below-normal September rainfall underpins the 61.5% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach record levels by late 2026, is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and favor a stronger subtropical ridge over southern China during the month's second half, limiting moisture convergence. Early September has already delivered scattered showers from low-pressure troughs, yet model consensus points to drier conditions ahead. Remaining uncertainty centers on any late-month cyclone tracks or forecast revisions from the Observatory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$8,733End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's late-August outlook for normal-to-below-normal September rainfall underpins the 61.5% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach record levels by late 2026, is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and favor a stronger subtropical ridge over southern China during the month's second half, limiting moisture convergence. Early September has already delivered scattered showers from low-pressure troughs, yet model consensus points to drier conditions ahead. Remaining uncertainty centers on any late-month cyclone tracks or forecast revisions from the Observatory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,733End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's late-August outlook for normal-to-below-normal September rainfall underpins the 61.5% implied probability on totals below 275 mm, well under the 321 mm climatological mean. A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to reach record levels by late 2026, is expected to suppress western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and favor a stronger subtropical ridge over southern China during the month's second half, limiting moisture convergence. Early September has already delivered scattered showers from low-pressure troughs, yet model consensus points to drier conditions ahead. Remaining uncertainty centers on any late-month cyclone tracks or forecast revisions from the Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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