Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Global Elections

Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Global Elections

Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place

Julio Cesar 35.6%

Ciro Nogueira 26%

Marcelo Castro 17.2%

Tiago Junqueira 3.8%

Polymarket

$39,021 Vol.

Julio Cesar 35.6%

Ciro Nogueira 26%

Marcelo Castro 17.2%

Tiago Junqueira 3.8%

Polymarket

$39,021 Vol.

icon for Julio Cesar

Julio Cesar

$5,500 Vol.

36%

icon for Ciro Nogueira

Ciro Nogueira

$11,941 Vol.

26%

icon for Marcelo Castro

Marcelo Castro

$8,159 Vol.

23%

icon for Tiago Junqueira

Tiago Junqueira

$1,190 Vol.

4%

icon for Francinaldo Leão

Francinaldo Leão

$815 Vol.

<1%

icon for Toinho Dufrango

Toinho Dufrango

$782 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alexandre Mariano

Alexandre Mariano

$771 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maria Madalena Nunes

Maria Madalena Nunes

$763 Vol.

<1%

icon for Missionário Evandro Craveiro

Missionário Evandro Craveiro

$754 Vol.

<1%

icon for Cloves José

Cloves José

$801 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dionisio Carvalho

Dionisio Carvalho

$759 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jardenya Bezerra

Jardenya Bezerra

$783 Vol.

<1%

icon for Antônio José Lira

Antônio José Lira

$778 Vol.

<1%

icon for Major Paulo Roberto

Major Paulo Roberto

$782 Vol.

<1%

icon for Antônio Barros

Antônio Barros

$730 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danniel Rocha

Danniel Rocha

$759 Vol.

<1%

icon for Irmão Evandro Marques

Irmão Evandro Marques

$785 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jorge Lopes

Jorge Lopes

$643 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pastor Sena

Pastor Sena

$791 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pedro Laurentino

Pedro Laurentino

$732 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**In the Piauí Senate race for two seats, recent polling from June and July 2026 shows a tight contest among the leading contenders for the second position.** Marcelo Castro (MDB), seeking reelection and aligned with Governor Rafael Fonteles’s (PT) base, consistently leads first-place intentions. Júlio César (PSD) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) remain closely matched behind him in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, with margins often within the margin of error. Government-allied candidates benefit from the strong statewide PT-led coalition, while Ciro Nogueira faces higher rejection rates in some surveys. Lower-polling names such as Tiago Junqueira (PL) trail significantly. With the October election approaching and limited new data since mid-year, trader consensus on second place reflects this ongoing three-way competitiveness and the impact of voter ticket-splitting in the two-vote system.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$39,021
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**In the Piauí Senate race for two seats, recent polling from June and July 2026 shows a tight contest among the leading contenders for the second position.** Marcelo Castro (MDB), seeking reelection and aligned with Governor Rafael Fonteles’s (PT) base, consistently leads first-place intentions. Júlio César (PSD) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) remain closely matched behind him in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, with margins often within the margin of error. Government-allied candidates benefit from the strong statewide PT-led coalition, while Ciro Nogueira faces higher rejection rates in some surveys. Lower-polling names such as Tiago Junqueira (PL) trail significantly. With the October election approaching and limited new data since mid-year, trader consensus on second place reflects this ongoing three-way competitiveness and the impact of voter ticket-splitting in the two-vote system.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$39,021
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Marcelo Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?

Will Marcelo Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?

53%
icon for Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

65%
icon for Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

35%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Julio Cesar" at 36%, followed by "Ciro Nogueira" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $39K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Julio Cesar" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ciro Nogueira" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.