Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race, backed by his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, superior fundraising exceeding $4.7 million compared to his opponent's under $90,000, and consistent double-digit polling margins. Multiple forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+2 partisan voter index and Ryan's prior victories despite a narrow Republican presidential edge in 2024. The June primaries concluded without opposition for either major candidate. A late national shift favoring Republicans, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural and resource advantages make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$42,781 Vol.
$42,781 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$42,781 Vol.
$42,781 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$33,491 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$9,290 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race, backed by his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, superior fundraising exceeding $4.7 million compared to his opponent's under $90,000, and consistent double-digit polling margins. Multiple forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+2 partisan voter index and Ryan's prior victories despite a narrow Republican presidential edge in 2024. The June primaries concluded without opposition for either major candidate. A late national shift favoring Republicans, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural and resource advantages make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,781End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race, backed by his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, superior fundraising exceeding $4.7 million compared to his opponent's under $90,000, and consistent double-digit polling margins. Multiple forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+2 partisan voter index and Ryan's prior victories despite a narrow Republican presidential edge in 2024. The June primaries concluded without opposition for either major candidate. A late national shift favoring Republicans, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural and resource advantages make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,781End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race, backed by his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, superior fundraising exceeding $4.7 million compared to his opponent's under $90,000, and consistent double-digit polling margins. Multiple forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+2 partisan voter index and Ryan's prior victories despite a narrow Republican presidential edge in 2024. The June primaries concluded without opposition for either major candidate. A late national shift favoring Republicans, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural and resource advantages make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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