In New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean, incumbent Republican Mike Lawler faces Democratic nominee Cait Conley in the November 3 general election. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, emerged from a competitive June primary and benefits from the district’s recent voting patterns, including a Democratic edge in the 2024 presidential contest. Trader consensus at 68.5% for Democrats versus 31% for Republicans aligns with several forecasts rating the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, even as one July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points. Fundraising, outside spending, and the seat’s status as a potential pivot point for House control continue to shape positioning ahead of Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-17 House Election Winner
NY-17 House Election Winner
$10,893 Vol.
$10,893 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
32%
$10,893 Vol.
$10,893 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,215 Vol.
69%
Republican Party
$6,678 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean, incumbent Republican Mike Lawler faces Democratic nominee Cait Conley in the November 3 general election. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, emerged from a competitive June primary and benefits from the district’s recent voting patterns, including a Democratic edge in the 2024 presidential contest. Trader consensus at 68.5% for Democrats versus 31% for Republicans aligns with several forecasts rating the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, even as one July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points. Fundraising, outside spending, and the seat’s status as a potential pivot point for House control continue to shape positioning ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$10,893End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean, incumbent Republican Mike Lawler faces Democratic nominee Cait Conley in the November 3 general election. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, emerged from a competitive June primary and benefits from the district’s recent voting patterns, including a Democratic edge in the 2024 presidential contest. Trader consensus at 68.5% for Democrats versus 31% for Republicans aligns with several forecasts rating the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, even as one July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points. Fundraising, outside spending, and the seat’s status as a potential pivot point for House control continue to shape positioning ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,893End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley swing seat with a modest Democratic partisan lean, incumbent Republican Mike Lawler faces Democratic nominee Cait Conley in the November 3 general election. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, emerged from a competitive June primary and benefits from the district’s recent voting patterns, including a Democratic edge in the 2024 presidential contest. Trader consensus at 68.5% for Democrats versus 31% for Republicans aligns with several forecasts rating the race a toss-up or lean Democratic, even as one July poll showed Lawler ahead by five points. Fundraising, outside spending, and the seat’s status as a potential pivot point for House control continue to shape positioning ahead of Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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