Tom Cole, the longtime Republican incumbent representing Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District since 2003, secured his party's nomination in the June 2026 primary by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the vote. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the November general election against Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Republican, citing limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,918 Vol.
$25,918 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,918 Vol.
$25,918 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$15,044 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,874 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Cole, the longtime Republican incumbent representing Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District since 2003, secured his party's nomination in the June 2026 primary by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the vote. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the November general election against Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Republican, citing limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Cole, the longtime Republican incumbent representing Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District since 2003, secured his party's nomination in the June 2026 primary by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the vote. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the November general election against Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Republican, citing limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Cole, the longtime Republican incumbent representing Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District since 2003, secured his party's nomination in the June 2026 primary by defeating challenger Marcie Everhart with 71 percent of the vote. The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee in the November general election against Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Republican, citing limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions