Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane and independent Adam Rueda in the November 3, 2026, general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. Gottheimer secured both parties’ primaries without opposition after the March filing deadline and holds a commanding fundraising lead, with over $12 million cash on hand compared to Kirrane’s roughly $8,000. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+2 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Gottheimer’s successive reelections. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 98.4% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, the incumbent’s moderate positioning and resources, and the absence of viable challengers. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-05 House Election Winner
NJ-05 House Election Winner
$25,800 Vol.
$25,800 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$25,800 Vol.
$25,800 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,948 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,853 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane and independent Adam Rueda in the November 3, 2026, general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. Gottheimer secured both parties’ primaries without opposition after the March filing deadline and holds a commanding fundraising lead, with over $12 million cash on hand compared to Kirrane’s roughly $8,000. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+2 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Gottheimer’s successive reelections. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 98.4% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, the incumbent’s moderate positioning and resources, and the absence of viable challengers. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$25,800End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane and independent Adam Rueda in the November 3, 2026, general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. Gottheimer secured both parties’ primaries without opposition after the March filing deadline and holds a commanding fundraising lead, with over $12 million cash on hand compared to Kirrane’s roughly $8,000. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+2 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Gottheimer’s successive reelections. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 98.4% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, the incumbent’s moderate positioning and resources, and the absence of viable challengers. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,800End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer faces Republican Sean Kirrane and independent Adam Rueda in the November 3, 2026, general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. Gottheimer secured both parties’ primaries without opposition after the March filing deadline and holds a commanding fundraising lead, with over $12 million cash on hand compared to Kirrane’s roughly $8,000. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+2 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Gottheimer’s successive reelections. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 98.4% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, the incumbent’s moderate positioning and resources, and the absence of viable challengers. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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