**No at 89.3% reflects the extreme rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the lack of supporting precursors through early September 2026.** These events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and often produce climate effects, occur roughly once per century on average; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity, including Anak Krakatau’s early-September pulses with ash reaching ~15 km and multiple smaller Indonesian eruptions (Semeru VEI 4 range in prior data, plus Ibu, Ili Lewotolok), remains well below this threshold according to official monitoring. No volcano currently shows the sustained unrest, seismic escalation, or deformation patterns that historically precede VEI 6 events. With roughly four months remaining and no imminent large-scale signals from agencies such as Indonesia’s PVMBG or the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of a qualifying eruption before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
11% chance
$146,136 Vol.
$146,136 Vol.
Mar 30, 2027
11% chance
$146,136 Vol.
$146,136 Vol.
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No at 89.3% reflects the extreme rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the lack of supporting precursors through early September 2026.** These events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and often produce climate effects, occur roughly once per century on average; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity, including Anak Krakatau’s early-September pulses with ash reaching ~15 km and multiple smaller Indonesian eruptions (Semeru VEI 4 range in prior data, plus Ibu, Ili Lewotolok), remains well below this threshold according to official monitoring. No volcano currently shows the sustained unrest, seismic escalation, or deformation patterns that historically precede VEI 6 events. With roughly four months remaining and no imminent large-scale signals from agencies such as Indonesia’s PVMBG or the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of a qualifying eruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$146,136End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No at 89.3% reflects the extreme rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the lack of supporting precursors through early September 2026.** These events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and often produce climate effects, occur roughly once per century on average; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity, including Anak Krakatau’s early-September pulses with ash reaching ~15 km and multiple smaller Indonesian eruptions (Semeru VEI 4 range in prior data, plus Ibu, Ili Lewotolok), remains well below this threshold according to official monitoring. No volcano currently shows the sustained unrest, seismic escalation, or deformation patterns that historically precede VEI 6 events. With roughly four months remaining and no imminent large-scale signals from agencies such as Indonesia’s PVMBG or the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of a qualifying eruption before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$146,136End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 89.3% reflects the extreme rarity of VEI ≥6 eruptions and the lack of supporting precursors through early September 2026.** These events, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and often produce climate effects, occur roughly once per century on average; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity, including Anak Krakatau’s early-September pulses with ash reaching ~15 km and multiple smaller Indonesian eruptions (Semeru VEI 4 range in prior data, plus Ibu, Ili Lewotolok), remains well below this threshold according to official monitoring. No volcano currently shows the sustained unrest, seismic escalation, or deformation patterns that historically precede VEI 6 events. With roughly four months remaining and no imminent large-scale signals from agencies such as Indonesia’s PVMBG or the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, trader consensus aligns with the low probability of a qualifying eruption before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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