**Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA’s risk lists shows no large asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst in 2026.** Ongoing surveys, including the Catalina Sky Survey, continue to detect only small meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, as seen with the recent ~1m impactor over the Indian Ocean. Cumulative impact probabilities for known NEOs remain negligible for the remainder of the year, with any potential risks pushed to later decades and carrying odds far below 1%. Enhanced detection networks and the planned NEO Surveyor mission further reduce the chance of undetected threats materializing. Traders therefore assign an 88% implied probability to “No,” reflecting confidence in current tracking data while acknowledging that an unknown object could theoretically appear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% chance
$202,307 Vol.
$202,307 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$202,307 Vol.
$202,307 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA’s risk lists shows no large asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst in 2026.** Ongoing surveys, including the Catalina Sky Survey, continue to detect only small meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, as seen with the recent ~1m impactor over the Indian Ocean. Cumulative impact probabilities for known NEOs remain negligible for the remainder of the year, with any potential risks pushed to later decades and carrying odds far below 1%. Enhanced detection networks and the planned NEO Surveyor mission further reduce the chance of undetected threats materializing. Traders therefore assign an 88% implied probability to “No,” reflecting confidence in current tracking data while acknowledging that an unknown object could theoretically appear.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$202,307End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA’s risk lists shows no large asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst in 2026.** Ongoing surveys, including the Catalina Sky Survey, continue to detect only small meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, as seen with the recent ~1m impactor over the Indian Ocean. Cumulative impact probabilities for known NEOs remain negligible for the remainder of the year, with any potential risks pushed to later decades and carrying odds far below 1%. Enhanced detection networks and the planned NEO Surveyor mission further reduce the chance of undetected threats materializing. Traders therefore assign an 88% implied probability to “No,” reflecting confidence in current tracking data while acknowledging that an unknown object could theoretically appear.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$202,307End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA’s risk lists shows no large asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst in 2026.** Ongoing surveys, including the Catalina Sky Survey, continue to detect only small meter-scale objects that burn up harmlessly, as seen with the recent ~1m impactor over the Indian Ocean. Cumulative impact probabilities for known NEOs remain negligible for the remainder of the year, with any potential risks pushed to later decades and carrying odds far below 1%. Enhanced detection networks and the planned NEO Surveyor mission further reduce the chance of undetected threats materializing. Traders therefore assign an 88% implied probability to “No,” reflecting confidence in current tracking data while acknowledging that an unknown object could theoretically appear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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